Convential wisdom states that whoever wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards has the best chance to take home an Oscar. If so, three “sure things” have gotten a little more sure and one toss-up category has become just a little more clearer.
The “sure things” are Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer for The Help and Christopher Plummer for Beginnings, all who were odds on favorites for an Oscar before the SAGs, each won in their respective categories. Their SAG wins are pretty much confirming what everyone already expected.
However, Jean Dujardin winning the prize for Best Actor does tell us something new. He has been an award year favorite, yet behind Academy favorite George Clooney in the odds to win an Oscar. His win here throws that paradigm out the window and slingshots Dujardin into being the odds on favorite to take home a statue on February 26th.
The Help taking home the big award for the night has cause the Internet to ask “Did The Help Sink The Artist‘s Oscar Chances……?” and “Did “The Help” Change The Oscar Game?,” meaning that the Best Picture race has just got a little bit more interesting. It hasn’t. These writers just failed to notice that The Help won for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, not Best Picture. With Davis, Spencer and Jessica Chastain’s names appearing on many an awards ballot this year and with a cast that also features actresses the caliber of Sissy Spacey, Allison Janney, Cicely Tyson and Mary Steenburgen–just to name a few–the film NOT winning for best ensemble would be a shock. But the SAG’s don’t have a Best Picture and great ensembles do not necessarily equate to great pictures. So, the film’s win here does nothing to help its chances on Oscar night.
Here are a list of the nominees for the awards, with the winners in bold.
WINNER: The Help
Midnight in Paris
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
WINNER: Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
WINNER: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
WINNER: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
WINNER: Octavia Spencer, The Help