In the days leading up to the 84th Academy Awards, FilmBuffOnline will be offering profiles on all the nominees in the major categories. Some may be well know, others might be new to you, but if you need a refresher on these talented nominees, here it is.

The Artist

Producer: Thomas Langmann

Release date: November 25, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $41,169,740 (Domestic: $17,030,695, Foreign: $24,139,045)

IMDB Synopsis: Hollywood, 1927: As silent movie star George Valentin wonders if the arrival of talking pictures will cause him to fade into oblivion, he sparks with Peppy Miller, a young dancer set for a big break.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 10 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Art Direction; Best Achievement in Cinematography;Best Achievement in Costume Design; Best Achievement in Directing; Best Achievement in Film Editing; Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score; Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role; Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role; Best Writing, Original Screenplay)

Other honors for this film:

Won, Best Film, The 2011 Washington DC Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Circle.

Won, Best Picture, Boston Society of Film Critics.

Won, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Won, Best Picture-Musical or Comedy, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Won, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Won, Best Film, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature, 2012 Film Independent Spirit Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 97% (178 Positive Reviews, 5 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: A crowd-pleasing tribute to the magic of silent cinema, The Artist is a clever, joyous film with delightful performances and visual style to spare.

Dissenting Opinion: “Ignores everything that’s fascinating and memorable about the silent-film era, focusing instead on a patchwork of general knowledge, so eroded of inconvenient facts that it doesn’t even qualify as a roman à clef.”–Jamie N. Christley, Slant Magazine.

Official Site: http://weinsteinco.com/sites/the-artist/

The Descendants

Producers: Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

Release date: November 16, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $86,086,672 (Domestic: $59,186,672, Foreign: $26,900,000)

IMDB Synopsis: A land baron tries to re-connect with his two daughters after his wife suffers a boating accident.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 5 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Directing; Best Achievement in Film Editing; Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role; Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Film, The 2011 Washington DC Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Picture, 37th Annual Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Won, Best Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Nominated, Best Film, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 90%  (192 Positive Reviews, 22 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Funny, moving, and beautifully acted, The Descendants captures the unpredictable messiness of life with eloquence and uncommon grace.

Dissenting Opinion: “From beginning to end, everything that happens in “The Descendants” feels false.”–Chris Hewitt, St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Official Site: http://www.foxsearchlight.com/thedescendants/

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Producer: Scott Rudin

Release date: December 25, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $21,960,998 (Domestic only)

IMDB Synopsis: A nine-year-old amateur inventor, Francophile, and pacifist searches New York City for the lock that matches a mysterious key left behind by his father, who died in the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 2 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 46% (59 Positive Reviews, 69 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close has a story worth telling, but it deserves better than the treacly and pretentious treatment director Stephen Daldry gives it.

Dissenting Opinion: “It’s a unique journey that’s equal parts sympathy card and celebration of human resilience.”–Richard Roeper, RichardRoeper.com.

Official Site: http://extremelyloudandincrediblyclose.warnerbros.com/index.html

The Help

Producers: Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan

Release date: August 10, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $205,313,398 (Domestic: $193,613.398, Foreign: $35,700,00)

IMDB Synopsis: An aspiring author during the civil rights movement of the 1960s decides to write a book detailing the African-American maid’s point of view on the white families for which they work, and the hardships they go through on a daily basis.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 4 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role; Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role x2)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Nominated, Best Film, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 76% (149 Positive Reviews, 47 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Though arguably guilty of glossing over its racial themes, The Help rises on the strength of its cast — particularly Viola Davis, whose performance is powerful enough to carry the film on its own.

Dissenting Opinion: “”The Help” comes out on the losing end of the movies’ social history. The best film roles three black women will have all year require one of them to clean Ron Howard’s daughter’s house. It’s self-reinforcing movie imagery.”–Wesley Morris. Boston Globe.

Official Site: http://www.dreamworksstudios.com/films/the-help

Hugo

Producers: Graham King, Martin Scorsese

Release date: November 23, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $90,001,874 (Domestic: $59,301,874, Foreign: $30,700,000)

IMDB Synopsis: Set in 1930s Paris, an orphan who lives in the walls of a train station is wrapped up in a mystery involving his late father and an automaton.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 11 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Art Direction; Best Achievement in Cinematography;Best Achievement in Costume Design; Best Achievement in Directing; Best Achievement in Film Editing; Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score; Best Achievement in Sound Editing; Best Achievement in Sound Mixing; Best Achievement in Visual Effects; Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Film, The 2011 Washington DC Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Film, National Board of Review.

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 94% (177 Positive Reviews, 11 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Hugo is an extravagant, elegant fantasy with an innocence lacking in many modern kids’ movies, and one that emanates an unabashed love for the magic of cinema.

Dissenting Opinion: “It’s as if David Copperfield wandered into a History of Film lecture. Maybe it isn’t a great idea to wait till you’re nearly 70 to make your first kid movie.”–Kyle Smith, New York Post.

Official Site: http://www.hugomovie.com/

Midnight In Paris

Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum

Release date: May 20, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $148,333,649 (Domestic: $56,473,065, Foreign: $91,860,584)

IMDB Synopsis: A romantic comedy about a family traveling to the French capital for business. The party includes a young engaged couple forced to confront the illusion that a life different from their own is better.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 4 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Directing; Best Achievement in Art Direction; Best Writing, Original Screenplay)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Picture-Musical or Comedy, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 93% (179 Positive Reviews, 14 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: It may not boast the depth of his classic films, but the sweetly sentimental Midnight in Paris is funny and charming enough to satisfy Woody Allen fans.

Dissenting Opinion: “Pure Woody Allen. Which is not to say great or even good Woody, but a distillation of the filmmaker’s passions and crotchets, and of his tendency to pass draconian judgment on characters the audience is not supposed to like.”–Richard Corliss, Time Magazine.

Official Site: http://www.sonyclassics.com/midnightinparis/

Moneyball

Producers: Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt

Release date: September 23, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $106,781,156 (Domestic: $75,605,492, Foreign: $31,175,664)

IMDB Synopsis: The story of Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane’s successful attempt to put together a baseball club on a budget by employing computer-generated analysis to draft his players.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 7 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Film Editing; Best Achievement in Sound Mixing; Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay;Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role; Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 95% (203 Positive Reviews, 11 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Director Bennett Miller, along with Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, take a niche subject and turn it into a sharp, funny, and touching portrait worthy of baseball lore.

Dissenting Opinion: “Those who enter the cinema unstirred by either the sport or by the joys of stats are unlikely to come out converts.”–Catherine Shoard, The Guardian.

Official Site: http://www.moneyball-movie.com/site/

The Tree of Life

Producers: Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner, Grant Hill

Release date: May 27, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $54,303,319 (Domestic: $13,303,319 , Foreign: $41,000,000)

IMDB Synopsis: The story centers around a family with three boys in the 1950s. The eldest son witnesses the loss of innocence.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 3 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Cinematography; Best Achievement in Directing)

Other honors for this film:

Runner-Up, Best Picture, 37th Annual Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle.

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 84% (203 Positive Reviews, 38 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Terrence Malick’s singularly deliberate style may prove unrewarding for some, but for patient viewers, Tree of Life is an emotional as well as visual treat.

Dissenting Opinion: “[Malick is] a meticulous visionary who knows where to place a camera, but he hasn’t a clue about how to tell a story with simplicity and coherence.”–Rex Reed, New York Observer.

Official Site: http://www.foxsearchlight.com/thetreeoflife/

War Horse

Producers: Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy

Release date: December 25, 2011

Box office gross as of February 1, 2011; $111,380,706 (Domestic: $75,980,706 , Foreign: $35,400,000)

IMDB Synopsis: Young Albert enlists to service in WWI after his beloved horse, Joey, is sold to the cavalry. Albert’s hopeful journey takes him out of England and across Europe as the war rages on.

Number of Oscar Nominations: 6 (Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Achievement in Art Direction; Best Achievement in Cinematography; Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score; Best Achievement in Sound Editing; Best Achievement in Sound Mixing)

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Picture, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Feature Film, 2012 Producers Guild Awards.

Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer: 76% (149 Positive Reviews, 46 Negative)

Rotten Tomatoes Critical Consensus: Technically superb, proudly sentimental, and unabashedly old-fashioned, War Horse is an emotional drama that tugs the heartstrings with Spielberg’s customary flair.

Dissenting Opinion: “It’s overlong, painfully earnest and sometimes even hokey.”–Christy Lemire, Associated Press.

Official Site: http://www.warhorsemovie.com/

In the days leading up to the 84th Academy Awards, FilmBuffOnline will be offering profiles on all the nominees in the major categories. Some may be well know, others might be new to you, but if you need a refresher on these talented nominees, here it is.

Michel Hazanavicius

Nominated for: directing that loving ode to Hollywood’s past, The Artist.

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Director, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Director, New York Film Critics Circle.

Won, Best Director, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Director-Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Won, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, 2012 Directors Guild Awards.

Won, David Lean Award for Achievement in Direction, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Nominated, Best Director, 2012 Film Independent Spirit Awards.

Where you might know him from:

Hazanavicius is known in Europe for his work on the OSS 117 franchise.

History with Oscar:

This is Michel Hazanavicius’ first Oscar nomination, although he is also nominated this year for Best Writing, Original Screenplay and with Anne-Sophie Bion for Best Achievement in Film Editing.

Alexander Payne

Nominated for: directing George Clooney as a man trying to reconnect with his daughters after his wife suffers a boating accident in The Descendants.

Other honors for this film:

Nominated, Best Director, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Actor, National Board of Review.

Nominated, Best Director, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Director-Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, 2012 Directors Guild Awards.

Nominated, Best Director, 2012 Film Independent Spirit Awards.

Where you might know him from:

Payne also directed Sideways, About Schmidt, and Election.

History with Oscar:

Alexander Payne has been nominated for an Oscar three times in the past, winning once, and is nominated for another two awards this year–with Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published and with Jim Burke and Jim Taylor for Best Motion Picture of the Year, both for The Descendants.

2000: Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published (with Jim Taylor), Election (Lost to John Irving, The Cider House Rules).

2005: Best Achievement in Directing, Sideways (lost to Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby).

2005: Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published (with Jim Taylor),  Sideways (Won).

Martin Scorsese

Nominated for: adapting “The Invention of Hugo Cabret” to the big screen in Hugo.

Other honors for this role:

Won, Best Director, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Director, National Board of Review.

Runner-Up, Best Director, 37th Annual Los Angeles Film Critics Awards.

Won, Best Director, Boston Society of Film Critics.

Nominated, Best Director, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Won, Best Director-Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, 2012 Directors Guild Awards.

Nominated, David Lean Award for Achievement in Direction, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know him from:

Scorsese is one of the honored and reknown directors in film today, with a resume that includes Raging Bull, Goodfellas, The Departed and many others.

History with Oscar:

Martin Scorcese has been nominated for an Oscar eight times in the past, winning once, and is nominated for another award this year–with Graham King for Best Motion Picture of the Year, Hugo.

1981: Best Director, Raging Bull (Lost to Robert Redford, Ordinary People).

1989: Best Director, The Last Temptation of Christ (Lost to Barry Levinson, Rain Man).

1991: Best Director, Goodfellas (Lost to Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves).

1991: Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material from Another Medium (with Nicholas Pileggi), Goodfellas (Lost to Michael Blake, Dances with Wolves).

1994: Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published (with Jay Cocks), The Age of Innocence (Lost to Steve Zaillian, Schindler’s List).

2003: Best Director, Gangs of New York (Lost to Roman Polanski, The Pianist).

2005: Best Achievement in Directing, The Aviator (lost to Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby).

2007: Best Achievement in Directing, The Departed (Won).

Woody Allen

Nominated for: directing a business trip to Paris that results in a trip through time in Midnight in Paris.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Director, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Nominated, Best Director-Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, 2012 Directors Guild Awards.

Where you might know him from:

Woody Allen has had a long and productive career both behind and in front of the cameras. Notable films include Annie Hall, Hannah and Her Sisters, and Match Point.

History with Oscar:

Woody Allen has been nominated for an Oscar an impressive twenty-one times in the past, winning three times, and is nominated for another award this year–Best Writing, Original Screenplay, Midnight in Paris.

1978: Best Director, Annie Hall (Won).

1978: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen (with Marshall Brickman), Annie Hall (Won).

1978: Best Actor in a Leading Role, Annie Hall (Lost to Richard Dreyfuss, The Goodbye Girl).

1979: Best Director, Interiors (Lost to Michael Cimino, The Deer Hunter).

1979: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen, Interiors (Lost to Nancy Dowd, Waldo Salt, Robert C. Jones, Coming Home).

1980: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen (with Marshall Brickman), Manhattan (Lost to Steve Tesich, Breaking Away).

1985: Best Director, Broadway Danny Rose (lost to Milos Foreman, Amadeus).

1985: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen, Broadway Danny Rose (lost to Robert Benton, Places in the Heart).

1986: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen, The Purple Rose of Cairo (lost to Earl W. Wallace, William Kelley, Pamela Wallace, Witness).

1987: Best Director, Hannah and Her Sisters (Lost to Oliver Stone, Platoon).

1987: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen , Hannah and Her Sisters (Won).

1988: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen , Radio Days (Lost to John Patrick Shanley, Moonstruck).

1990: Best Director, Crimes and Misdemeanors (Lost to Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July).

1990: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen, Crimes and Misdemeanors (Lost to Tom Schulman, Dead Poets Society).

1991: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen, Alice (Lost to Bruce Joel Rubin, Ghost).

1993: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen, Husbands and Wives (Lost to Neil Jordan, The Crying Game).

1995: Best Director, Bullets Over Broadway (Lost to Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump).

1995: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen (with Douglas McGrath), Bullets Over Broadway (Lost to Quentin Tarantino & Roger Avary, Pulp Fiction).

1996: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen , Mighty Aphrodite(Lost to Christopher McQuarrie, The Usual Suspects).

1998: Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen , Deconstructing Harry (Lost to Matt Damon & Ben Affleck, Good Will Hunting).

2006: Best Writing, Original Screenplay, Match Point (lost to Paul Haggis & Robert Moresco, Crash).

Terrence Malick

Nominated for: directing the esoteric coming of age film, The Tree of Life.

Other honors for this film:

Won, Best Director, 37th Annual Los Angeles Film Critics Awards.

Won, Best Director, San Francisco Critics Circle Awards.

Where you might know him from:

Malick has directed films such as Badlands, The Thin Red Line, and The New World.

History with Oscar:

Terrence Malick has been nominated for an Oscar two times in the past.

1999: Best Director, A Thin Red Line (Lost to Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan).

1999: Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published, A Thin Red Line (Lost to Bill Condon, Gods and Monsters).

Woody Allen’s Midnight In Paris and The Descendants were the big film winners at last night’s Writers Guild of America awards.

Previously nominated nineteen times, Allen took the Best Original Screenplay award, his fifth win. Alexander Payne, Jim Rash and Nat Faxon took home the Best Adapted Screenplay award for translating Kaui Hart Hemmings’s novel The Descendants to the big screen. This was Payne’s third nomination and first win.

Allen’s Midnight In Paris is also nominated for in the Best Original Screenplay category at this coming Sunday’s Academy Award, where he’ll once again be up against fellow WGA award nominee Bridesmaids as well as three other films who weren’t nominated for the Guild awards. The Descendents are also up for an Oscar in the Best Adapted Screenplay against two other of its fellow WGA nominees – Moneyball and Hugo.

Katie Galloway and Kelly Duane de la Vega won the documentary screenplay award for Better This World. The film is not nominated for an Academy Award.

It’s that time of year again. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 84st Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, especially in a year when the Best Picture nominees could be 5 films, or ten films, or any number in between.  We here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you, in the most non-committal way possible, who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre, X-Men: First Class, A Dangerous Method or Shame; Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid Love, Drive, or The Ides of March; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Clooney and Dujardin have won the most hardware this year, which not only make them a lock to be nominated, but also likely one of them will be taking home the award.

Fassbender has been great in a lot of films (listing X-Men: First Class was a bit of a joke, he’ll most likely get the nod for Shame, but I think he gave an Oscar worthy performance in that film) so he is practically a lock for a nomination. The next two are about 50/50 of getting in. The Academy seems to have something against DiCaprio, and his performance as J. Edgar Hoover while not horrible (he got a lot of nods for other awards for it), was not amazing enough to overcome that film’s lackluster performance critically or financially. Brad Pitt eked out a couple of wins along the way (most notably, the New York and Boston critics), and while Moneyball was well received, I don’t see it as 100% Oscar material.

If DiCaprio and Pitt don’t get nominated, there are worthy choices waiting to take a spot. Bichir was great in a small film with a limited release that opened over the summer. These all work against him, but he is deserving of a nod. Gosling, like Fassbender, was great in a lot of films this year, and has been nominated before, but none of the films he was in seem to pass Oscar muster. Oldman was flat out amazing in Tinker Tailor, but his subtle performance might be lost on Oscar voters.

Best Actress

Almost Certain:

Viola Davis, The Help;  Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Definite Maybe:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Outside Shot:

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Charlize Theron, Young Adult

On paper, this seems to be the category that seems to have the least wiggle room. Davis, Streep, Close, Swinton and Williams are all in the type of roles that Oscar voters seem to trip over giving nominations to. But in every round of nominations, there are bound to be surprises, and this category is ripe for one.

Bejo and Olsen have the best chance of breaking in, in my opinion. But Bejo is getting pushed for Best Supporting Actress instead of Lead, even though she essentially had a lead role. Olsen got good notices in her role, but suffers from the same “too early/too small handicap” that Bichir has. Theron has received nods for Best Actress in the Golden Globes (where there are nominations for comedy and drama) and the Critic’ Choice Awards (where there are six nominees). She has an Oscar pedigree, but Young Adult could very well be seen as less than Oscar worthy.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Definite Maybe:

Albert Brooks, Drive; Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Nick Nolte, Warrior; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes or The Adventures of Tintin; Armie Hammer, J Edgar; Tom Hardy, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Plummer has won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice award Supporting Actor, making him a lock for an  Oscar nomination, if not the actual award. Branagh has been consistently nominated for his apt portrayal of Laurence Olivier, so he could get the nod as well. Slightly less certain but highly possible are nomination of two actors best known for comedy, Brooks and Hill, for playing against type. After that, place your bets. Will Nolte’s “sports mentor” role make the grade? Will Mortensen’s change of pace role as Sigmund Freud catch the Academy’s attention? Will the Academy make a statement and move towards the future by giving Serkis the nod for his superior motion-capture work? Does the Academy like J Edgar more than the critics and the general public do, thereby swing the nod to Hammer? Will Hardy represent Tinker Tailor‘s stellar cast with a nomination? Will it be another cast member? Or will the film be ignored?

Best Supporting Actress

Almost Certain:

Octavia Spencer, The Help; Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Outside Shot:

Jessica Chastain, The Help or Take Shelter; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Carey Mulligan, Shame; Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

What I said for Christopher Plummer above also applies to Spencer. The only chance Bejo doesn’t get nominated here is if she gets nominated for Best Actress. But that race is crowded so I think she’ll land here. She is deserving.

The only thing keeping me from making McCarthy almost certain is the Academy’s apparent hatred of the comedy. They do not like to give nominations from comedies, no matter how good the role or film is. This time, though, I think they’ll make an exception.

After that, pick two. Chastain and Woodley might have a slight advantage, but McTeer has a good chance and Mulligan could sneak in.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Definite Maybe:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris;  Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Outside Shot:

David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Steven Spielberg, War Horse or The Adventures of Tintin; Tate Taylor, The Help

Hazanavicius is definitely most deserving and Scorsese won the Golden Globe, so they should both be nominated. After that, Payne is almost a lock, as is Allen, due to the number of nominations they received. After that, well, ot depends. Fincher got a Directors Guild nomination, Malick has been on a lot of west coast critics awards list, which might be a barometer of how the Academy will go. Miller might ride the surprising accolades Moneyball is getting this award season with a nomination. And months ago, it looked like it wouldn’t be a question if Spielberg would be nominated, but for which film. Now, here he is, a long shot for any nomination at all. Weird. And Taylor has to be consider taking into account the number of great performance that came from that film.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

The Artist; The Descendants

Definite Maybe:

Hugo; The Help ; Midnight in Paris

Outside Chance:

The Tree of Life; War Horse; Moneyball; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; The Adventures of Tintin; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or just about any other film out there that has a miniscule amount of buzz.

Not having a definite number of nominees beforehand really plays havoc with the prognosticating business. I tried to pick out the five most likely films to get nominated, but with the possibility of five more, well, it could be any film of a certain stature.

So, what do you think? Am I on to something, or totally wrong? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) (Summitt Entertainment, 4,061 Theaters, 117 Minutes, Rated PG): There will be millions of people in this world who will greet this film with cries of how are global nightmare is now at an end. No, the cry isn’t coming from Twilight fans, grateful that the next installment has finally arrived (although that’s only because its the next to the last installment, then there will be no more).

No, those cries will be coming from the Twilight haters, who have been waiting for the day that the franchise would slip out of national consciousness. There has seldom been a franchise that garnered this much teeth gnashing and vitrol as this one did.

I have to say that you can count me in this number. I have not read the books but I have watched enough of the films (they are in contant rotation on the Showtime networks) to know that the plot is weak, the acting bad, and the changes they meade to the accepted vampire and werewolf mythoses were achingly inane (sparkly vampires who can walk about in the daytime aren’t vampires).

But the plot point that is introduced in this segment where Jacob, who lost out on Bella to Edward, sorry Team Jacobites, finds himself irresistably drawn to Edward and Bella’s daughter. With the Penn State scandal still fresh in the air, that is creepy enough as it is. But what jacks up the creep factor even more is that this attraction starts when the spawn is still in Bella’s womb. I’m sure there are people who are calling for Joe Paterno and anybody even distantly related to Penn State to be thrown in jail who think that negative-May/December romance is so, well, romantic. And that’s just wrong.

2. Happy Feet Two (Warner Brothers,  3,606 Theaters, 100 Minutes, Rated PG): The first Happy Feet was a charming surprise, with a lot of heart that made up for the slightly heavy handed ecological message. I liked it a lot in that it was a kids movie that wasn’t afraid to have a bit of a dark side to it.

Part of the charm of the first movie is gone. Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman, whose best Elvis Presley/Marilyn Monroe impersonation since Nicolas Cage and Laura Dern Wild at Heart one, was a high point of the original, are missing from the credits in this one. Instead, we focus on a grown up Mumbles (Elijah Wood) who faces an opposite problem than his father has with him, his child with Gloria (voiced by P!nk, taking over for the late Brittany Murphy) who will not dance.

Regardless, if this film is a half as good as the original, it should be a great success.

Of the majors, Happy Feet Two has a shot not only at a Best Animated nomination, but, if it’s good, picking up a statue. Cars 2 was  a weaker than normal effort from Pixar, so the award is up for grabs. And the first Happy Feet waddled off with the award in 2007.

And there is no way The Twilight “Saga” pulls a Lord of the Rings and gets nominated on its final go round. So give it up, Twi-hards.

In the smaller releases, the biggest Oscar contender has to be The Descendants. It is written and directed by Academy favorite Alexander Payne (winner for his script for Sideways, for which he also got a directing nod, and was also nominated for writing Election) and stars someone the Academy loves, George Clooney. Bonus: points, it adapted from a novel about a man who reconnects with his estranged daughters after his wife suffers a horrible boating accident. It opened in Los Angeles and New York on Wednesday, and will be bumped up to 27 theaters nationwide today.