In the days leading up to the 85th Academy Awards, FilmBuffOnline will be offering profiles on all the nominees in the major categories. Some may be well known, others might be new to you, but if you need a refresher on these talented nominees, here it is.

Jessica Chastain

Nominated for: Playing the CIA analyst responsible for finding Osama Bin Laden in Zero Dark Thirty.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Actress, Australian Film Institute

Nominated, Best Leading Actress, 2013 BAFTA Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Actress, 2013 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle Awards.

Won, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, The 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Actress of the Year, London Critics Circle Film Awards.

Won, Best Actress, National Board of Review

3rd Place, Best Actress, National Society of Film Critics Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Online Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Phoenix Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, 2013 Screen Actors Guild Award.

2nd Place, Best Actress, Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Vancouver Film Critics Circle Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association.

Where you might know her from:

If you haven’t seen the numerous other films she put out in the last two years like Mama or The Tree of Life, perhaps you remember her from her recurring role as Assistant District Attorney Sigrun Borg on the TV series Law and Order: Trial By Jury.

History with Oscar:

Jessica Chastain has one previous nominations.

2012: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, The Help (Lost to Octavia Spencer, The Help).

 

Jennifer Lawrence

Nominated for: Playing a sexually destructive widow in Silver Linings Playbook.

Other honors for this role:

Won, Best Actress, Austin Film Critics Association.

Nominated, Best Actress, Australian Film Institute

Nominated, Best Leading Actress, 2013 BAFTA Awards.

Won, Best Actress in a Comedy, Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association.

Nominated, Best Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2013 Critics’ Choice Awards.

2nd Place, Best Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, The 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Female Lead, Independent Spirit Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Las Vegas Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Actress of the Year, London Critics Circle Film Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TIE).

2nd Place, Best Actress, National Society of Film Critics Awards.

2nd Place, Actress of the Year, New York Film Critics Circle Film Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Online Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Phoenix Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society Awards.

Won, Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Satellite Awards.

Won, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, 2013 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Won, Best Actress, Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Vancouver Film Critics Circle Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association.

Where you might know him from:

Lawrence is best known as Katniss in The Hunger Games franchise.

History with Oscar:

Jennifer Lawrence has one prior Oscar nominations.

2011: Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, Winter’s Bone (Lost to Natalie Portman, Black Swan).

 

Emmanuelle Riva

Nominated for: Playing an elderly woman in deteriorating health in Amour.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Actress, Australian Film Institute.

Won, Best Leading Actress, 2013 BAFTA Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2013 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards.

Won, Best Actress, European Film Awards.

Nominated, Actress of the Year, London Critics Circle Film Awards.

Won, Best Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TIE).

Won, Best Actress, National Society of Film Critics Awards.

3rd Place, Actress of the Year, New York Film Critics Circle Film Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Online Film Critics Society Awards.

Won, Best Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle.

Nominated, Best Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association.

Where you might know her from:

While far from a household word here in the United States, Riva has had a long and notable career in France, starring in films such as Hiroshima, Mon Amour and Blue.

History with Oscar:

Emmanuelle Riva has no prior Oscar nominations. She is also the oldest Best Actress nominee in Academy history.

 

Quvenzhané Wallis

Nominated for: Playing a resilient and independent Hushpuppy in Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Actress, Black Reel Awards

Nominated, Best Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2013 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Actress in a Motion Picture, Image Awards.

Nominated, Best Female Lead, Independent Spirit Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Online Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress in a Leading Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society Awards.

Where you might know her from:

Beasts of the Southern Wild is Wallis’ first film.

History with Oscar:

This is Quvenzhané Wallis’ is first Oscar nomination. She is also the youngest woman to ever be nominated at Best Actress.

 

Naomi Watts

Nominated for: Playing a mother trying to save her children’s life in tsunami-torn Thailand in The Impossible.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Actress, Australian Film Institute

Nominated, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards.

2nd Place, Best Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association.

Nominated, Best Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, CinemaWriters Circle Awards, Spain.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2013 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards.

Nominated, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, The 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, Goya Awards.

Nominated, Best Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, 2013 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Where you might know her from:

Watts burst on the scene in David Lynch’s Mullholland Dr., but might be best known for her work in The Ring and King Kong.

History with Oscar:

This is Weaver’s second Oscar nomination.

2004: Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, 21 Grams (Lost to Charlize Theron, Monster).

1. The Last Stand (Lionsgate, 2,913 Theaters, 107 Minutes, Rated R): Conan the Barbarian. Commando. Predator. Total Recall. Terminator. True Lies. Say what you want about him, Arnold Schwarzenegger has an impressive resume of quality action films to his credit. He also has a number of questionable choices in his later career as well, so it is with great interest to see what the former California governor chooses for his return to acting after the end of his political career.

What he chose, well, I guess we’ll have to see what category it falls in. He plays a small town sheriff in a California border town that is faced with a big challenge–he must stop a drug lord and his heavily armed cartel from making it to the Mexico border with only a inexperienced and short-handed staff.

On one hand, it could be the simple kind of plot that Arnold pulls off so well. On the other hand, it could be considered silly and implausible if not done well. The early reviews have been somewhat favorable. We’ll have to see if Arnold’s return to lead roles is a sign that he is back.

2. Mama (Universal, 2,647 Theaters, 100 Minutes, Rated PG-13): Two young girls are found in the woods, more feral than human, five years after being abandoned by their homicidal father. They are taken to their uncle and his girlfriend (played by a deliciously gothy Jessica Chastain) to begin the healing process. But the couple finds out that two young children do not survive in the wilderness alone, and their protector is none too happy that they were taken away. What happens when the protector comes to take the children back?

The film both has a lot going for it (it was produced by Guillermo del Toro,  stars the twice Oscar-nominated Chastain in the lead role, and the director of the Argentinian short film it was based on, Andres Muschietti, is back to direct the full-length ) but also has a lot going against it (the plot stretches credibility for even a horror film, the film was supposed to open in the more horror friendly October but instead was pushed to the film wasteland that is January, and–personal preference here–it is a PG-13 horror film). It doesn’t seem like a slam dunk horror flick to me.

3. Broken City (Fox, 2,620 Theaters, 109 Minutes, Rated R): Now, a film featuring some of the greatest actors in film today–and Mark Wahlberg.

Okay, that might not be entirely fair. While Russell Crowe and Catherine Zeta-Jones might have Oscars, Wahlberg does have a nomination. But his work here as seen in the ads for the film seem worthy of a SNL mocking (when he says in the trailer “Your husband set me up. And I’m going to destroy him for it,” my mind keeps adding “Say hello to your mother for me” at the end of it).

Wahlberg play an ex-NYC cop who is hired by the city’s mayor (Crowe) to find out who is sleeping with his wife (Zeta-Jones). What was a simple trail and surveillance operation gets far trickier when a dead body shows up. Wahlberg realizes that he was set up by the mayor, and decides to bring him down.

1. Lawless (The Weinstein Company, 2,565 Theaters, 115 Minutes, Rated R): Usually, when Hollywood does a crime story set in Prohibition-era America, it’s usually focused on the Al Capone-type figures who were the face of the opposition in big cities. This film takes a look at the rural bootleggers that did the grunt work on the back roads of the country during this period.

The film has an intriguing cast, including The Dark Knight Rises‘ Tom Hardy and Gary Oldman, Oscar Nominee Jessica Chastain, and, sticking out like a sore thumb, Shia LeBeouf.  Okay, that was a bit cruel. LeBeouf has done good work in films other than the big-budget blockbusters, so he’s not that awkward of a fit.

This film was adapted by rock star Nick Cave, whose last screenplay was for The Proposition, which was also directed by John Hillcoat and starred Guy Pearce.

 

2. The Oogieloves In The BIG Balloon Adventure (Kenn Viselman Presents, 2,160 Theaters, Rated G): Good lord, where to begin with this utterly bizarre movie.

As the father of a three-year old, I have seen a lot of entertainment aimed at kids. A lot. And the prevalent theme in a lot of this entertainment is its sheer stupidity. Not “simplified so kids can understand it” stupid but “kids aren’t worth it so why even bother trying” stupid.  For every Sesame Street there’s a Teletubbies, the creator of which, coincidentally, is the creative force behind this film. That should tell you something.

I saw the trailer for this film before Brave, and I was saddened about what so many of my favorite actors have to stoop to. Christopher Lloyd was Doc Brown! Cary Elwes was Westley! Chazz Palminteri has an Oscar nomination for goodness sakes! And yet, on the other hand, these are the biggest names the producers could afford to make a fool of themselves on the films paltry budget.

It appears as if Jessica Chastain won’t be Iron Man 3 has previously reported. The Academy Award-nominated actress took to her Facebook page earlier today to confirm that the stories concerning her involvement to be a bit premature.

Sorry to say that Iron Man 3 isn’t going to work out. My schedule is jammed packed and I can’t fit anything else in. The press announced my possible attachment far too soon. I know many of you wanted me to be involved, and I’m so sorry to disappoint you. Hopefully there’ll be another Marvel film in my future. Shane Black and everyone on the IM3 team are really wonderful. I’m very excited to see the film when it comes out. xx

Chastain was being reported as playing a “sexy scientists,” which lead people to believe that the character would have been Dr. Maya Hansen, a major player in the Iron Man comic book miniseries Extremis which it appears the threequel’s script is at least partly based on.

Tree Of Life actress Jessica Chastain looks to be the latest addition to the Iron Man 3 cast with Deadline reporting that she is currently in negotiations to join the project which is scheduled to begin shooting next month in North Carolina.

Chastain is being reported as playing a “sexy scientists,” which leads me to believe that the character will be Dr. Maya Hansen, a major player in the Iron Man comic book miniseries Extremis which it appears the threequel’s script is at least partly based on. Last week, Guy Pearce was announced as playing geneticist Aldrich Killian, another character from the Extremis story. In the comic Killian and Hansen are developers of nanotechnology weapons for the military. When their company’s funding is cut off, they arrange for the tech to be stolen by terrorists in the hope that a confrontation between the terrorists and Iron Man would prove that their work was worth continuing.

Chastain had originally been offered the role a while back buy initially turned it down due to scheduling conflicts with two other possible projects. Reportedly, Marvel Studios began scheduling meetings with Diane Kruger, Gemma Arterton and Isla Fisher, but Chastain’s calendar managed to clear itself so they jumped at the chance to have her in the film.

Written and directed by Shane Black (and co-written by Drew Pearce), Iron Man 3 also stars Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Don Cheadle, Scarlett Johansson and Ben Kingsley. It is set for release on May 3, 2013.

In the days leading up to the 84th Academy Awards, FilmBuffOnline will be offering profiles on all the nominees in the major categories. Some may be well know, others might be new to you, but if you need a refresher on these talented nominees, here it is.

Bérénice Bejo

Nominated for: playing young ingenue whose career as an actress skyrockets with the introduction of sound in The Artist.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know her from:

She has primarily acted only in Europe, but American audiences may remember her as Christiana in A Knight’s Tale.

History with Oscar:

This is Bérénice Bejo’s first Oscar nomination.

Jessica Chastain

Nominated for: Playing Celia Foote, a naive Southern housewife in The Help.

Other honors for this role:

Won, Best Supporting Actress, New York Film Critics Circle Award (Awarded for her roles in The Tree of Life and Take Shelter as well).

Won, Best Supporting Actor, 37th Annual Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards  (Awarded for her roles in Coriolanus, The Debt, Texas Killing Fields, The Tree of Life and Take Shelter as well).

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know her from:

If you haven’t seen the numerous other films she put out last year, perhaps you remember her from her recurring role as Assistant District Attorney Sigrun Borg on the TV series Law and Order: Trial By Jury.

History with Oscar:

This is Jessica Chastain’s first Oscar nomination.

Melissa McCarthy

Nominated for: Playing Megan, a gruff and raunchy sister-in-law-to-be in Bridesmaids.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Supporting Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics.

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know her from:

She is on TV every week, playing Molly in Mike & Molly, a role for which she won an Emmy.  

History with Oscar:

This is Melissa McCarthy’s first Oscar nomination.

Janet McTeer

Nominated for: playing Hubert, an energetic, cross-dressing artist in Albert Nobbs .

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Nominated, Best Supporting Female, 2012 Film Independent Spirit Awards.

Where you might know her from:

Fans of BBC America might recognize her from her many roles in various British TV series. Fans of the live stage might know her from extensive stage work, most recently on Broadway taking over the role of Veronica in God of Carnage. And those of you with good ears might recognize her voice as the narrator of Velvet Goldmine.

History with Oscar:

Janet McTeer has one previous Oscar nomination.

2000: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Tumbleweeds (Lost to Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry).

Octavia Spencer

Nominated for: playing Minny Jackson, an outspoken and combative maid in The Help.

Other honors for this role:

Won, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Film Critics Association

Won, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Won, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Won, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Won, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know her from:

She has played numerous roles on television. including Constance Grady on Ugly Betty, Serenity Johnson on Halfway Home, and Arvina Watkins on Raising the Bar.

History with Oscar:

This is Octavia Spencer’s first Oscar nomination.

Convential wisdom states that whoever wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards has the best chance to take home an Oscar. If so, three “sure things” have gotten a little more sure and one toss-up category has become just a little more clearer.

The “sure things” are Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer for The Help and Christopher Plummer for Beginnings, all who were odds on favorites for an Oscar before the SAGs, each won in their respective categories. Their SAG wins are pretty much confirming what everyone already expected.

However, Jean Dujardin winning the prize for Best Actor does tell us something new. He has been an award year favorite, yet behind Academy favorite George Clooney in the odds to win an Oscar.  His win here throws that paradigm out the window and slingshots Dujardin into being the odds on favorite to take home a statue on February 26th.

The Help taking home the big award for the night has cause the Internet to ask “Did The Help Sink The Artist‘s Oscar Chances……?” and “Did “The Help” Change The Oscar Game?,” meaning that the Best Picture race has just got a little bit more interesting. It hasn’t. These writers just failed to notice that The Help won for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, not Best Picture. With Davis, Spencer and Jessica Chastain’s names appearing on many an awards ballot this year and with a cast that also features actresses the caliber of Sissy Spacey, Allison Janney, Cicely Tyson and Mary Steenburgen–just to name a few–the film NOT winning for best ensemble would be a shock. But the SAG’s don’t have a Best Picture and great ensembles do not necessarily equate to great pictures. So, the film’s win here does nothing to help its chances on Oscar night.

Here are a list of the nominees for the awards, with the winners in bold.

Films

Ensemble

The Artist

Bridesmaids

The Descendants

WINNER: The Help

Midnight in Paris

Lead actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

WINNER: Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Lead actor

Demián Bichir, A Better Life

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

WINNER: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Supporting actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Nick Nolte, Warrior

WINNER: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Supporting actress

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

WINNER: Octavia Spencer, The Help

It’s that time of year again. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 84st Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, especially in a year when the Best Picture nominees could be 5 films, or ten films, or any number in between.  We here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you, in the most non-committal way possible, who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre, X-Men: First Class, A Dangerous Method or Shame; Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid Love, Drive, or The Ides of March; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Clooney and Dujardin have won the most hardware this year, which not only make them a lock to be nominated, but also likely one of them will be taking home the award.

Fassbender has been great in a lot of films (listing X-Men: First Class was a bit of a joke, he’ll most likely get the nod for Shame, but I think he gave an Oscar worthy performance in that film) so he is practically a lock for a nomination. The next two are about 50/50 of getting in. The Academy seems to have something against DiCaprio, and his performance as J. Edgar Hoover while not horrible (he got a lot of nods for other awards for it), was not amazing enough to overcome that film’s lackluster performance critically or financially. Brad Pitt eked out a couple of wins along the way (most notably, the New York and Boston critics), and while Moneyball was well received, I don’t see it as 100% Oscar material.

If DiCaprio and Pitt don’t get nominated, there are worthy choices waiting to take a spot. Bichir was great in a small film with a limited release that opened over the summer. These all work against him, but he is deserving of a nod. Gosling, like Fassbender, was great in a lot of films this year, and has been nominated before, but none of the films he was in seem to pass Oscar muster. Oldman was flat out amazing in Tinker Tailor, but his subtle performance might be lost on Oscar voters.

Best Actress

Almost Certain:

Viola Davis, The Help;  Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Definite Maybe:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Outside Shot:

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Charlize Theron, Young Adult

On paper, this seems to be the category that seems to have the least wiggle room. Davis, Streep, Close, Swinton and Williams are all in the type of roles that Oscar voters seem to trip over giving nominations to. But in every round of nominations, there are bound to be surprises, and this category is ripe for one.

Bejo and Olsen have the best chance of breaking in, in my opinion. But Bejo is getting pushed for Best Supporting Actress instead of Lead, even though she essentially had a lead role. Olsen got good notices in her role, but suffers from the same “too early/too small handicap” that Bichir has. Theron has received nods for Best Actress in the Golden Globes (where there are nominations for comedy and drama) and the Critic’ Choice Awards (where there are six nominees). She has an Oscar pedigree, but Young Adult could very well be seen as less than Oscar worthy.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Definite Maybe:

Albert Brooks, Drive; Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Nick Nolte, Warrior; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes or The Adventures of Tintin; Armie Hammer, J Edgar; Tom Hardy, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Plummer has won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice award Supporting Actor, making him a lock for an  Oscar nomination, if not the actual award. Branagh has been consistently nominated for his apt portrayal of Laurence Olivier, so he could get the nod as well. Slightly less certain but highly possible are nomination of two actors best known for comedy, Brooks and Hill, for playing against type. After that, place your bets. Will Nolte’s “sports mentor” role make the grade? Will Mortensen’s change of pace role as Sigmund Freud catch the Academy’s attention? Will the Academy make a statement and move towards the future by giving Serkis the nod for his superior motion-capture work? Does the Academy like J Edgar more than the critics and the general public do, thereby swing the nod to Hammer? Will Hardy represent Tinker Tailor‘s stellar cast with a nomination? Will it be another cast member? Or will the film be ignored?

Best Supporting Actress

Almost Certain:

Octavia Spencer, The Help; Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Outside Shot:

Jessica Chastain, The Help or Take Shelter; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Carey Mulligan, Shame; Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

What I said for Christopher Plummer above also applies to Spencer. The only chance Bejo doesn’t get nominated here is if she gets nominated for Best Actress. But that race is crowded so I think she’ll land here. She is deserving.

The only thing keeping me from making McCarthy almost certain is the Academy’s apparent hatred of the comedy. They do not like to give nominations from comedies, no matter how good the role or film is. This time, though, I think they’ll make an exception.

After that, pick two. Chastain and Woodley might have a slight advantage, but McTeer has a good chance and Mulligan could sneak in.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Definite Maybe:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris;  Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Outside Shot:

David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Steven Spielberg, War Horse or The Adventures of Tintin; Tate Taylor, The Help

Hazanavicius is definitely most deserving and Scorsese won the Golden Globe, so they should both be nominated. After that, Payne is almost a lock, as is Allen, due to the number of nominations they received. After that, well, ot depends. Fincher got a Directors Guild nomination, Malick has been on a lot of west coast critics awards list, which might be a barometer of how the Academy will go. Miller might ride the surprising accolades Moneyball is getting this award season with a nomination. And months ago, it looked like it wouldn’t be a question if Spielberg would be nominated, but for which film. Now, here he is, a long shot for any nomination at all. Weird. And Taylor has to be consider taking into account the number of great performance that came from that film.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

The Artist; The Descendants

Definite Maybe:

Hugo; The Help ; Midnight in Paris

Outside Chance:

The Tree of Life; War Horse; Moneyball; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; The Adventures of Tintin; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or just about any other film out there that has a miniscule amount of buzz.

Not having a definite number of nominees beforehand really plays havoc with the prognosticating business. I tried to pick out the five most likely films to get nominated, but with the possibility of five more, well, it could be any film of a certain stature.

So, what do you think? Am I on to something, or totally wrong? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.