1. Hope Springs (Opened Wednesday, Sony/Columbia, 2,361 Theaters, 100 Minutes, Rated PG-13): Here’s a rare sight: a film where Steve Carell is the youngest member of the main cast.

Carell plays a psychologist who is trying to help the optimistic Kay (Meryl Streep) and the reluctantly irascible Arnold (Tommy Lee Jones) to bring some magic back into their decades long marriage.

The plot seems kind of familiar, but you have Streep working with Jones, two of the best actors of their generation. If anybody can rise above their material, it will be them.

2. Nitro Circus 3D: The Movie (Opened Wednesday, Arc Entertainment, 800 Theaters, 98 Minutes, Rated PG-13): This film was based on the MTV show, which is a combination of Jackass, X Games and extreme motor sports, and is trying, like Jackass, to make a successful move to the world of film.

If this kind of stuff appeals to you, then you probably have already seen it. If not, then nothing I can say will change you mind. So, there is really not much need to say much more about this film, is there?

3. The Bourne Legacy (Universal, 3,746 Theaters, 135 Minutes, Rated PG-13): If there’s one thing Universal should get credit for, it’s doing an in continuity reboot of the franchise instead of just starting over from scratch, although the latter wasn’t really feasible because the last Matt Damon Bourne movie, The Bourne Ultimatum, came out only five years ago.

However, the idea that there could be more than just one genetically altered secret agent seems natural. So, they have Jeremy Renner to expand the franchise and the freedom to make another Bourne film with Damon is he wants to come back. Pretty smart.

4. The Campaign (Warner Brothers, 3,205 Theaters, 85 Minutes, Rated R): You don’t really expect political satire from Zach Galifianakis. Even more so from Will Ferrell. So, even though this film focuses on a contentious political campaign, don’t expect a searing indictment of our political process. It will probably be two idiots trying to out stupid each other.

The film focuses on a North Carolina GOP primary (because having a Republican and a Democrat would be, what, too shocking? Too controversial? Not as funny?) where a scandal plagued incumbent, Cam Brady (Ferrell) must face off the challenge of a naive unknown with the implausible name of Marty Huggins (Galifianakis), who is being supported incredible rich backers who want to use his influence to land a controversial business deal.

When Harry Met Sally… . Sleepless in Seattle. You’ve Got Mail. If you were going to choose a Holy Trinity of romantic comedies, most people would choose those three. They were the rare “chick flicks” that husbands or boyfriends didn’t mind being dragged to. The reason was the writing (and, for the last two, the direction) of Nora Ephron.

Ephron’s life could make a pretty good Hollywood film on its own–and it did: 1983′s Heartburn. Born into a family of writers and screenwriters–father Henry and mother Phoebe co-wrote the films such as Carousel and Desk Set in the 1950′s,  sister Delia wrote The Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants screenplay, sister Amy is a novelist and sister Hallie is a journalist/novelist–Nora’s life would become entwined with the worlds of politics, journalism, Broadway and Hollywood over her 40+ year career.

Ephron attended Wellesley College and spent time as an intern in the Kennedy White House. After her graduation in 1962, she moved to New York City to work in the mailroom at Newsweek. Her work on a parody of the New York Post during a newpaper strike resulted in her getting a job with the paper she parodied in the late 1960s. That job led to a career as an essayist, eventually becoming a columnist for Esquire.

In 1976, she married Watergate reporter Carl Bernstein and in a roundabout way it wa sthrough him that she entered the field she became most known for. She and Bernstein co-wrote a treatment for a screenplay forAll the President’s Men, based on a book by Bernstein and Bob Woodward. The treatment wasn’t used, but it was good enough to get Ephron noticed by the Hollywood establishment.

After ten years of writing for television, made the jump to the big screen, co-writing the screenplay for 1983′s Silkwood, which would earn her her first Oscar nomination. Her next screenwriting work would be on the 1986 film adaptation of her 1983 novel Heartburn, a semi-autobiographical tome that detailed the dissolution of her and Bernstein’s marriage.

In 1989, Ephron’s breakthrough screenplay, When Harry Met Sally… hit theaters. The script detailed the long journey of two people from adversarial strangers to friends to lovers, and would earn Ephron her second Oscar nomination.

Ephron would parlay her success with that film into a career behind the camera as well, more often than not choosing to direct her own writing in films such as Sleepless in Seattle (which garnered Ephron her third Oscar nomination), Michael, You’ve Got Mail and Julie & Julia, Ephron’s final film which reunited her with Meryl Streep, the actress that starred in her first film screenplay Silkwood and played a fictionalized version of Ephron inHeartburn.

On a personal note, Ephron’s passing today, due pneumonia which arose as a complication from her six-year battle with acute myeloid leukemia, is a sad occassion in the Gatevackes household. Even though it was released over a decade before we met, When Harry Met Sally… was a film that brought my wife and I together. We both loved that film, and would often quote lines to each other from it as a form of a courtship ritual. And while Ephron is no longer with us, her body of work will make her immortal. My wife and I eagerly await the day when our daughter is old enough so we can watch When Harry Met Sally… with her.

As the Oscars just showed us Sunday, Hollywood loves movies about movies. So maybe it should come as no surprise that Walt Disney is in the process of developing a film based on the story of how studio founder Uncle Walt himself went about securing the rights to the British children’s book Mary Poppins from its author P L Travers and is currently in talks with The Blind Side director John Lee Hancock to direct.

The project got its start with a spec screenplay written by Kelly Marcel, which managed to land on last year’s Black List. Disney is still in the process of acquiring the screenplay, but considering that they own much of the screen rights for Mary Poppins, it seems doubtful that Marcel has too many other places to shop the script. There are rumors that Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep are interested in roles in the film, but I honestly think it would take more than just a spoonful of sugar to help me swallow that.

Although Mary Poppins is considered one of the studio’s classics, Travers was very upset with the final product. She considered her novel to be very personal as she had infused it with things from her own life and relationship with her father. Expressing disappoint with how the film turned out, Travers refused to work with Disney again.

Via Deadline.

The 2012 Oscars were a vast improvement over the 2011 Oscars for one reason. No, not because there were more surprises–they were just as predictable. Not because of star power either–the stars were out both years. The reason why this year’s Oscar telecast was the best it’s been in years–Billy Crystal.

Crystal might not be the Oscar host the Academy wants, but he is the host they need. You might think him to be too “old school” or too “borscht belt” but you need a Master of Ceremonies that has experience running an event with this much glitz and glamour. You need someone at ease in his role and not afraid to seem foolish. You need someone who rolls with the punches a live show throws at them, joking all the way. And you need someone who can make a three and a half hour show fly by in such a way that the audience says “They’re at Best Picture already?” instead of “When are they ever going to get to Best Picture”. You need someone who can make the ceremony fun and exciting, not seem like the Bataan Death March of awards shows.

You get all this and more with Crystal. Granted, his night wasn’t perfect (His “you’re in his eye sight” line when Christian Bale came out would have been funnier if his Terminator: Salvation set dust-up wasn’t four years and five movies ago) and he relied on old gags like “What are the celebrities thinking.” (because, well, they worked), but for the first time in years you had the sense that the Oscar host actually wanted to be there and was having fun while on stage. And this sense of joy translated to the presenters and winners as well.

There weren’t many surprises this year. Meryl Streep might have seemed like one, but her Oscar win was not unforseen. Woody Allen winning Best Original Screenplay came close to being a true upset, but even still it was widely acclaimed as Allen’s best work in years and not a complete surprise.

Now what stands out in my memory as the Best and Worst moments from last night’s telecast:

The Best:

• The acceptance speeches from the acting winners: All showed genuine emotion and seemed natural and heartfelt. Touching.
• Christopher Guest & Company mocking the focus group: A little bit of insider editorial comment on the value of test screenings and a reminder why these people’s movies even at their worst are entertaining.
•  The way Zack Galifianakis introduced himself: As someone with a long, hard to pronounce last name, I could truly appreciate this bit, even if no one else could.
• Jim Rash’s instantaneous mocking of Angelina Jolie: If you’re going to pose awkwardly to show off your gams to the world, leave it to the Community cast member and ex-Groundling to call you on it.

The Worst:

• Cutting off Octavia Spencer’s speech: Spencer’s speech was heartfelt and emotional. I was captivated and rapt. It was a great Oscar moment. And they rush her off the stage. The powers-that-be should know that while they do need to keep the proceedings moving, they should allow great moments like this one to just happen.
• “Hugo!” “No, Hugo!”: Why don’t you both go so we can get to the next award. Academy? This is the one you should have cut off.
• Kristen Wiig and Maya Rudolph’s introduction to Best Live Action Short: I hope this doesn’t sound prudish or misogynistic, and my anti-Kristen Wiig bias might be showing, but a penis joke? Really? Stay classy ladies.

In the days leading up to the 84th Academy Awards, FilmBuffOnline will be offering profiles on all the nominees in the major categories. Some may be well know, others might be new to you, but if you need a refresher on these talented nominees, here it is.

Glenn Close

Nominated for: playing the title character, a woman pretending to be a man in 19th century Ireland, in Albert Nobbs.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Where you might know her from:

Close has had a long and varied career. Her most memorable roles are as Alex Forrest in Fatal Attraction, Marquise Isabelle de Merteuil in Dangerous Liasons, and Sunny von Bulow in Reversal of Fortune. Most recently, she is known for her role of Patty Hewes in the TV show Damages.

History with Oscar:

Glenn Close has five prior Oscar nominations.

1983: Best Actress in a Supporting Role, The World According to Garp (lost to Jessica Lange, Tootsie).

1984: Best Actress in a Supporting Role, The Big Chill (lost to Linda Hunt, The Year of Living Dangerously).

1985: Best Actress in a Supporting Role, The Natural (lost to Peggy Ashcroft, A Passage to India).

1988: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Fatal Attraction (lost to Cher, Moonstruck).

1989: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Dangerous Liasons (lost to Jodie Foster, The Accused).

Viola Davis

Nominated for: playing Aibileen Clark, an African-American maid who provides insight into the lives of the black servantry the 1960′s South in The Help.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Actress, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Won, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know her from:

You might remember her fromher Oscar nominated role of Mrs. Miller in Doubt or from her recurring roles as Donna Emmett on the TV series Law and Order: Special Victims Unit or as Lynda P. Frazier on The United States of Tara television program.

History with Oscar:

Viola Davis has one prior Oscar nomination.

2009: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Doubt (lost to Penélope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona).

Rooney Mara

Nominated for: playing Lisbeth Salander, a computer hacker who investigates a missing persons case in  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Where you might know her from:

Outside of her showy cameo in The Social Network, Mara’s only major screen role was as Nancy in 2010′s Nightmare on Elm Street remake.

History with Oscar:

This is Rooney Mara’s first Oscar nomination.

Meryl Streep

Nominated for: playing controversial British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.

Other honors for this role:

Nominated, Best Actress, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Actress, New York Film Critics Circle.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Won, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Won, Best Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Where you might know her from:

Her almost yearly appearances on the Oscar telecasts.

History with Oscar:

Meryl Streep has sixteen previous Oscar nominations and two wins. If you need to have a pee break or get a snack, you should probably do so now. This is going to take a while.

1979: Best Actress in a Supporting Role, The Deer Hunter (lost to Maggie Smith, California Suite).

1980: Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Kramer vs. Kramer (Won).

1982: Best Actress in a Leading Role, The French Lieutenant’s Woman (lost to Katharine Hepburn, On Golden Pond).

1983: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Sophie’s Choice (Won).

1984: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Silkwood (lost to Shirley McLaine, Terms of Endearment).

1986: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Out of Africa (lost to Geraldine Page, A Trip to Bountiful).

1988: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Ironweed (lost to Cher, Moonstruck).

1989: Best Actress in a Leading Role, A Cry in the Dark (lost to Jodie Foster, The Accused).

1991: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Postcards from the Edge (lost to Kathy Bates, Misery).

1996: Best Actress in a Leading Role, The Bridges of Madison County (lost to Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking).

1999: Best Actress in a Leading Role, One True Thing (lost to Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love).

2000: Best Actress in a Leading Role, Music of the Heart (Lost to Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry).

2003: Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Adaptation (lost to Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago).

2007: Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, The Devil Wears Prada (lost to Helen Mirren, The Queen).

2009: Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, Doubt (lost to Kate Winslet, The Reader).

2010: Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, Julie & Julia (lost to Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side).

Michelle Williams

Nominated for: playing a fragile Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marilyn.

Other honors for this role:

Won, Best Actress, Washington DC Film Critics Association.

Won, Best Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics.

Nominated, Best Actress, 2012 Critics’ Choice Awards.

Won, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy , The 69th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

Nominated, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role , 2012 Screen Actors Guild Award.

Nominated, Best Supporting Actress, 2012 BAFTA Awards.

Nominated, Best Female Lead, 2012 Film Independent Spirit Awards.

Where you might know her from:

Even though she has been noticed and received much critical acclaim for her work in films such as Brokeback Mountain, Blue Valentine and Shutter Island, she will probably always be remembered for her role of Jen Lindley in Dawson’s Creek.

History with Oscar:

Michelle Williams has two prior Oscar nominations.

2006: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Brokeback Mountain (lost to Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener).

2011: Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, Blue Valentine (lost to Natalie Portman, Black Swan).

Last night, The British Academy of Television and Films Arts gave out their awards. Oscar favorite The Artist took home seven awards, including Picture, Director (Michel Hazanavicius) and Actor (Jean Dujardin). And Oscar favorites Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer took home awards for the Supporting categories for their work The Help and Beginners respectively.

These awards aren’t much of a surprise. However, the woman who won Best Actress might throw a spanner in the works of many an Oscar office pool–Meryl Streep took home the award for her role as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Viola Davis? Watch out!

It might be easy to write this win off (and her Golden Globe win as well) as the British (and, in the Golden Globe’s case, the international media) honoring Streep for her sterling portrayal of a person who was an iconic figure in European and British history. However, there are a lot of British members in the Academy and Streep holds a lot of respect within the organization. I think that makes it fair to say that the Best Actress Oscar has become a two person race.

Below is a list of the rest of the winners from last night:

Picture

The Artist

Actor

Jean Dujardin – The Artist

Actress

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Director

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Supporting actress

Octavia Spencer – The Help

Supporting actor

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Animated film

Rango

Documentary

Senna

Outstanding British film

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Film not in the English language

The Skin I Live In

Outstanding debut

Tyrannosaur

Adapted screenplay

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan

Original screenplay

The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius

Production design

Hugo – Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo

Cinematography

The Artist – Guillaume Schiffman

Makeup and hair

The Iron Lady – Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland, Marese Langan

Costume design

The Artist – Mark Bridges

Editing

Senna – Gregers Sall and Chris King

Sound

Hugo – Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Tom Fleischman, John Midgley

Original score

The Artist – Ludovic Bource

Rising star award

Adam Deacon

Academy fellowship

Martin Scorsese

Outstanding contribution to British cinema

John Hurt

Special visual effects

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 – Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler and David Vickery

Short animation

A Morning Stroll – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe

Short film

Pitch Black Heist – John Maclean and Geraldine O’Flynn

Via: Guardian

It’s that time of year again. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 84st Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, especially in a year when the Best Picture nominees could be 5 films, or ten films, or any number in between.  We here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you, in the most non-committal way possible, who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre, X-Men: First Class, A Dangerous Method or Shame; Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid Love, Drive, or The Ides of March; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Clooney and Dujardin have won the most hardware this year, which not only make them a lock to be nominated, but also likely one of them will be taking home the award.

Fassbender has been great in a lot of films (listing X-Men: First Class was a bit of a joke, he’ll most likely get the nod for Shame, but I think he gave an Oscar worthy performance in that film) so he is practically a lock for a nomination. The next two are about 50/50 of getting in. The Academy seems to have something against DiCaprio, and his performance as J. Edgar Hoover while not horrible (he got a lot of nods for other awards for it), was not amazing enough to overcome that film’s lackluster performance critically or financially. Brad Pitt eked out a couple of wins along the way (most notably, the New York and Boston critics), and while Moneyball was well received, I don’t see it as 100% Oscar material.

If DiCaprio and Pitt don’t get nominated, there are worthy choices waiting to take a spot. Bichir was great in a small film with a limited release that opened over the summer. These all work against him, but he is deserving of a nod. Gosling, like Fassbender, was great in a lot of films this year, and has been nominated before, but none of the films he was in seem to pass Oscar muster. Oldman was flat out amazing in Tinker Tailor, but his subtle performance might be lost on Oscar voters.

Best Actress

Almost Certain:

Viola Davis, The Help;  Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Definite Maybe:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Outside Shot:

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Charlize Theron, Young Adult

On paper, this seems to be the category that seems to have the least wiggle room. Davis, Streep, Close, Swinton and Williams are all in the type of roles that Oscar voters seem to trip over giving nominations to. But in every round of nominations, there are bound to be surprises, and this category is ripe for one.

Bejo and Olsen have the best chance of breaking in, in my opinion. But Bejo is getting pushed for Best Supporting Actress instead of Lead, even though she essentially had a lead role. Olsen got good notices in her role, but suffers from the same “too early/too small handicap” that Bichir has. Theron has received nods for Best Actress in the Golden Globes (where there are nominations for comedy and drama) and the Critic’ Choice Awards (where there are six nominees). She has an Oscar pedigree, but Young Adult could very well be seen as less than Oscar worthy.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Definite Maybe:

Albert Brooks, Drive; Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Nick Nolte, Warrior; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes or The Adventures of Tintin; Armie Hammer, J Edgar; Tom Hardy, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Plummer has won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice award Supporting Actor, making him a lock for an  Oscar nomination, if not the actual award. Branagh has been consistently nominated for his apt portrayal of Laurence Olivier, so he could get the nod as well. Slightly less certain but highly possible are nomination of two actors best known for comedy, Brooks and Hill, for playing against type. After that, place your bets. Will Nolte’s “sports mentor” role make the grade? Will Mortensen’s change of pace role as Sigmund Freud catch the Academy’s attention? Will the Academy make a statement and move towards the future by giving Serkis the nod for his superior motion-capture work? Does the Academy like J Edgar more than the critics and the general public do, thereby swing the nod to Hammer? Will Hardy represent Tinker Tailor‘s stellar cast with a nomination? Will it be another cast member? Or will the film be ignored?

Best Supporting Actress

Almost Certain:

Octavia Spencer, The Help; Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Outside Shot:

Jessica Chastain, The Help or Take Shelter; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Carey Mulligan, Shame; Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

What I said for Christopher Plummer above also applies to Spencer. The only chance Bejo doesn’t get nominated here is if she gets nominated for Best Actress. But that race is crowded so I think she’ll land here. She is deserving.

The only thing keeping me from making McCarthy almost certain is the Academy’s apparent hatred of the comedy. They do not like to give nominations from comedies, no matter how good the role or film is. This time, though, I think they’ll make an exception.

After that, pick two. Chastain and Woodley might have a slight advantage, but McTeer has a good chance and Mulligan could sneak in.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Definite Maybe:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris;  Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Outside Shot:

David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Steven Spielberg, War Horse or The Adventures of Tintin; Tate Taylor, The Help

Hazanavicius is definitely most deserving and Scorsese won the Golden Globe, so they should both be nominated. After that, Payne is almost a lock, as is Allen, due to the number of nominations they received. After that, well, ot depends. Fincher got a Directors Guild nomination, Malick has been on a lot of west coast critics awards list, which might be a barometer of how the Academy will go. Miller might ride the surprising accolades Moneyball is getting this award season with a nomination. And months ago, it looked like it wouldn’t be a question if Spielberg would be nominated, but for which film. Now, here he is, a long shot for any nomination at all. Weird. And Taylor has to be consider taking into account the number of great performance that came from that film.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

The Artist; The Descendants

Definite Maybe:

Hugo; The Help ; Midnight in Paris

Outside Chance:

The Tree of Life; War Horse; Moneyball; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; The Adventures of Tintin; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or just about any other film out there that has a miniscule amount of buzz.

Not having a definite number of nominees beforehand really plays havoc with the prognosticating business. I tried to pick out the five most likely films to get nominated, but with the possibility of five more, well, it could be any film of a certain stature.

So, what do you think? Am I on to something, or totally wrong? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

While I’m intrigued by the idea of Merytl Streep playing Great Britain’s first, and so-far only, woman Prime Minister, I’m less than thrilled by the fact that the film in which Streep does so, The Iron Lady, is being directed by Phyllida Lloyd who is responsible for the abominable Mamma Mia. It’s hard to judge from the film’s first teaser trailer below how things will shake out, but as we grow closer to its December 16 release date we’ll probably get another trailer or two to help give us an indication

In the meantime, here is the studio’s synopsis for the film –

The Iron Lady is a surprising and intimate portrait of Margaret Thatcher, the first and only female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. One of the 20th century’s most famous and influential women, she came from nowhere to smash through barriers of gender and class to be heard in a male dominated world.

This is a film about power and the price that is paid for power, a story that is both unique and universal.

Here’s a look at Meryl Streep and Jim Broadbent in the upcoming Margaret Thatcher bio-pic The Iron Lady.

Prime Minister of Great Britain from 1979 to 1990, Thatcher earned her nickname for string rhetoric against the Soviet Union and her work on reducing the power that industrial unions held. She also came under fire for her moves to privatize state-owned utilities and deregulate the country’s financial industry.

Streep’s regular hair and makeup artist J. Roy Helland is responsible for her remarkably good transformation into Thatcher. Now normally I would say that it would take more than just a hairdo and some funny teeth to encapsulate a real person in a film, but this is a two-time Academy Award winner we’re talking about, so I don’t think that should be a problem.

The real problem for me, is that the film is being directed by Phyllida Lloyd,the director behind Mamma Mia!. I found that film horribly staged and shot. Hopefully, Streep won’t deliver a great performance trapped in a crappily shot film.

Via Bleeding Cool.

On Friday, we here at FilmBuffOnline handicapped the Oscar race as we saw it. As we all know, the nominations have just been released. How did we do?  Well, let’s find out. And the nominees are…

Actor in a Leading Role

• Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
• George Clooney in Up in the Air
• Colin Firth in A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman in Invictus
• Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

Commentary: It wasn’t too hard to get 100% correct when four of the five were gimmies. Morgan Freeman played a real-life inspirational hero, and most years that will be enough to get you the nod.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Matt Damon in Invictus
• Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

Commentary: Again, with a perfect record, if you count picking Plummer as an outside shot as a prediction. Of course, the “playing a real-life person” factor and the “legend at in the winter of his career” factor was enough to give Christopher Plummer his first Oscar nomination. Conventional wisdom says this statue is Christoph Waltz’s to lose, but I’m getting a feeling that Plummer could spoil, especially if he gets the “here’s a statue for lifetime achievement ” sympathy vote.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren in The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan in An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
• Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 of 5.

Commentary: Another clean sweep! This is our best year ever! Up into this category at least!

And I totally don’t believe this story about Sandra Bullock not expecting a phone call telling her she was nominated. She’s the favorite to win the whole thing! Pretending to be humble only works if, well, you need to be.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Penélope Cruz in Nine
• Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
• Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
• Mo’Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 4 of 5.

Commentary: The first surprise of the nominations, as Maggie Gyllenhall gets the honor of losing to Mo’Nique on Oscar night. So left fied was this that I picked Mariah Carey over her as a possible candidate. Crazy Heart seemed to be a Jeff Bridges vehicle all along, but I guess the Academy thought Gyllenhaal was worth a nod.

Directing

• Avatar – James Cameron
• The Hurt Locker– Kathryn Bigelow
• Inglourious Basterds– Quentin Tarantino
• Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire – Lee Daniels
• Up in the Air– Jason Reitman

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 of 5.

Commentary: Again, a very predictable category. And , since there are 10 nominees for Best Picture, all five of the director’s films are nominated for Best Picture, avoiding the reoccurring controversy of one of a director being snubbed. Of course, to look at it another way, now there are five directors being snubbed.

Best Picture

• Avatar – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• The Blind Side – Nominees to be determined
• District 9– Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
• An Education– Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
• The Hurt Locker – Nominees to be determined
• Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender, Producer
• Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire– Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
• A Serious Man– Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
• Up – Jonas Rivera, Producer
• Up in the Air– Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 10 of 10.

Commentary: 100% correct, even if we thought that The Blind Side, District 9, and A Serious Man were long shots. I’m happy that the Academy gave a nod to the genre flick District 9. I’m very happy that Up got a nods. There would have been a rant if it wasn’t in the list. I think it deserved a spot even if there were only five spaces.

The Blind Side is listed by many as a surprise, but, really, there was enough Oscar buzz around it that I included it as having a chance on my list. What is surprising is that such a poorly received film got a nomination. The film received a 70% positive rating at the movie review aggregatesite, Rotten Tomatoes. That did qualify it as “Fresh,” or recommended, by the site, but was only 11 percentage points away from being classified “Rotten,” or not recommended. Of all the possible candidates I listed on Friday, only Nine scored lower (and abysmal 37% positive rating). All the other films listed scored at least five percentage points higher.

This is indicative of the axiom, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The field was extended to 10 films to put to rest the controversy about good films not getting nominated. But a good number of critically acclaimed films didn’t make the cut, but the treacly, feel-good, factually inaccurate film did. If they keep this up, maybe the Academy should expand the nominees to 20.