It’s that time of the year again, Oscar time! The question everyone is asking (at least in my household) is this – who the heck is going to win Best Director now that Ben Affleck is not in the running? Oh, and what other surprises will ensue.

In this post, we go through the major categories, pick who we think will will, and who has the best chance for an upset. This way, all of our bases are covered (unless, of course, we are wrong). We’ll even give you our odds for an upset. So, here we go!

Best animated feature film of the year

• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Pirates! Band of Misfits
• Wreck-It Ralph

And the Oscar Goes to: Brave

Unless it goes to: The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Chance of Upset: 0.5%

I really don’t see any other film unseating Pixar’s return to form. I only list Pirates! because it is a bit of an left field choice and if there is a major surprise, this would be it.

Adapted screenplay

• Argo, Chris Terrio
• Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
• Life of Pi, David Magee
• Lincoln, Tony Kushner
• Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

And the Oscar Goes to: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Unless it goes to: Argo or Silver Linings Playbook.

Chance of Upset: 40%

I think Beasts of the Southern Wild will get the award based purely on the unconventional nature of the script and how hard it must have been to translate the original play to the big screen. If the voters go conventional on us, Argo should be the way to go, although I’m afraid that the rampant promotion for Silver Linings Playbook might cause it to win more awards than it deservers, starting with this one.

Original screenplay

• Amour, Michael Haneke
• Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
• Flight, John Gatins
• Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
• Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

And the Oscar Goes to: Django Unchained

Unless it goes to: Moonrise Kingdom.

Chance of Upset: 26%

I think this category will be the “Sorry” category this year. As in, “Sorry, Quentin, we’re not brave enough to give you the Oscar for Best Picture. Here’s Original Screenplay to make up for it.” Or, possibly the same for Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, but with a further apology for not even getting nominated for best picture. Michael Haneke has a slim shot if Academy voters are willing to overlook their guilt.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Amy Adams, The Master
• Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables 
• Helen Hunt, The Sessions
• Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
• Sally Field, Lincoln

And the Oscar Goes to: Sally Field

Unless it goes to: Anne Hathaway

Chance of Upset: 74%

You saw that right. Hathaway has been piling up the hardware over the past few months, but I am picking Field to win the Oscar. It’s a gut feeling brought on by empirical evidence (The Academy often overlooks deserving younger actors if they think they’ll have more opportunities down the line, Field is and Academy favorite, Field’s behind the scenes struggle to get the part could be something voters related to, etc) and I think if Field doesn’t get it Hathaway will. I just think Field will win.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Alan Arkin, Argo
• Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

And the Oscar Goes to: Christoph Waltz

Unless it goes to: Robert De Niro

Chance of Upset: 39%

I think his second Tarantino pairing will bring a second Oscar to Waltz, and a well-deserved one at that. The only competition would come from De Niro, who could ride his strongest acting job in years and a Silver Linings Playbook media push to an upset. Sorry, Tommy Lee Jones.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
• Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
• Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
• Naomi Watts, The Impossible
• Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

And the Oscar Goes to: Quvenzhané Wallis

Unless it goes to: Emmanuelle Riva

Chance of Upset: 50%

When the nominations were announced, I though like many other do now that it would be a race between Lawrence and Chastain. Upon further reflection, and knowing how the Academy works, I think it will be a choice between the oldest Best Actress nominee ever and the youngest Best Actress nominee ever. Chastain and Lawrence will have more opportunities in the future, so why not make history? I think voters will be more impressed by Wallis’ lack of experience and giver the award.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
• Denzel Washington, Flight
• Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
• Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

And the Oscar Goes to: Daniel Day-Lewis

Unless it goes to: Hugh Jackman

Chance of Upset: 17%

I know, I know, The chance of upset is way too high. That might be what you think. I think Day-Lewis is the overwhelming choice to add an Oscar to his list of awards this season. But I don’t think he’s a dead solid lock. Jackman might not have much of a chance to upset, but he does have a chance (and is the only one who does).

Achievement in directing

• Ang Lee, Life of Pi
• Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
• David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
• Michael Haneke, Amour
• Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

And the Oscar Goes to: Ang Lee

Unless it goes to: David O. Russell

Chance of Upset: 7%

This match should be a toss-up between Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow. And you might think that since the Academy was so nice as to not nominate those two for the award, then field is wide-open. It’s not. I think just clears the way for Lee to be honored for making a film out of the what many people thought was unfilmable. But watch out of Silver Lining Playbook starts earning undeserved Oscars early in the night. That might mean upset.

Best Picture

• Argo
• Amour
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Misérables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty 

And the Oscar Goes to: Argo

Unless it goes to: Silver Linings Playbook.

Chance of Upset: 25%

Django Unchained might be the most deserving but is too edgy for Oscar voters. Zero Dark Thirty is too controversial. Lincoln is too staid and conventional and Beasts of the Southern Wild is too esoteric. Life of Pi is too gimmicky,Les Misérables is too uneven and Amour will probably win Best Foreign Film. That leaves Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. Argo is by far the better of the two, but Silver Linings Playbook  is getting a heavy push. My pick: I think Affleck gets his second Oscar.

Follow me (@gates71) and FilmBuffOnline (@FilmBuffOnLine) tonight for live commentary during the ceremony. Get our apologies for being wrong live as they happen!

1. The Last Stand (Lionsgate, 2,913 Theaters, 107 Minutes, Rated R): Conan the Barbarian. Commando. Predator. Total Recall. Terminator. True Lies. Say what you want about him, Arnold Schwarzenegger has an impressive resume of quality action films to his credit. He also has a number of questionable choices in his later career as well, so it is with great interest to see what the former California governor chooses for his return to acting after the end of his political career.

What he chose, well, I guess we’ll have to see what category it falls in. He plays a small town sheriff in a California border town that is faced with a big challenge–he must stop a drug lord and his heavily armed cartel from making it to the Mexico border with only a inexperienced and short-handed staff.

On one hand, it could be the simple kind of plot that Arnold pulls off so well. On the other hand, it could be considered silly and implausible if not done well. The early reviews have been somewhat favorable. We’ll have to see if Arnold’s return to lead roles is a sign that he is back.

2. Mama (Universal, 2,647 Theaters, 100 Minutes, Rated PG-13): Two young girls are found in the woods, more feral than human, five years after being abandoned by their homicidal father. They are taken to their uncle and his girlfriend (played by a deliciously gothy Jessica Chastain) to begin the healing process. But the couple finds out that two young children do not survive in the wilderness alone, and their protector is none too happy that they were taken away. What happens when the protector comes to take the children back?

The film both has a lot going for it (it was produced by Guillermo del Toro,  stars the twice Oscar-nominated Chastain in the lead role, and the director of the Argentinian short film it was based on, Andres Muschietti, is back to direct the full-length ) but also has a lot going against it (the plot stretches credibility for even a horror film, the film was supposed to open in the more horror friendly October but instead was pushed to the film wasteland that is January, and–personal preference here–it is a PG-13 horror film). It doesn’t seem like a slam dunk horror flick to me.

3. Broken City (Fox, 2,620 Theaters, 109 Minutes, Rated R): Now, a film featuring some of the greatest actors in film today–and Mark Wahlberg.

Okay, that might not be entirely fair. While Russell Crowe and Catherine Zeta-Jones might have Oscars, Wahlberg does have a nomination. But his work here as seen in the ads for the film seem worthy of a SNL mocking (when he says in the trailer “Your husband set me up. And I’m going to destroy him for it,” my mind keeps adding “Say hello to your mother for me” at the end of it).

Wahlberg play an ex-NYC cop who is hired by the city’s mayor (Crowe) to find out who is sleeping with his wife (Zeta-Jones). What was a simple trail and surveillance operation gets far trickier when a dead body shows up. Wahlberg realizes that he was set up by the mayor, and decides to bring him down.

The Associated Press is reporting that music recording superstar Whitney Houston has died. She was 48.

With Cissy Houston as a mother, Dionne Warwick as a cousin, and Aretha Franklin as a godmother, you can say Whitney Houston was fated to become a singer. Signed to Arista Records in 1983, Houston would sing duets on albums by Teddy Pendergrass and Jermaine Jackson while the best production teams and songwriters were being assembled for her debut album. That self-titled album was released in 1985, would feature four top ten singles–three of which made it to number one, and made Houston and international superstar.

Houston would put out two more, multiple-times Platinum albums–1987′s Whitney and 1990′s I’m Your Baby Tonight–before making the jump to the big screen. In 1992, Houston starred in a role seemingly custom made to ease her transition into the world of acting, that of a international recording artist whose life is threatened in The Bodyguard. Actually, the project had been in development since the mid-1970s as a vehicle for Diana Ross, with first Steve McQueen then Ryan O’Neal playing opposite in the role that would eventually be played by Kevin Costner.

Houston was nominated for a 1992 Golden Raspberry Award for Worst Actress for her role in the film, but this didn’t stop the film from becoming a worldwide smash, earning over $410 million at the international box office. The success of The Bodyguard would lead to two more roles in front of the screen for Houston, in 1995′s Waiting to Exhale and  1996′s The Preacher’s Wife and one behind the scenes as a producer on The Princess Diaries franchise.

The late 1990s marked the begin of a downward slope in Houston’s career. A contentious marriage to Bobby Brown, admitted drug use, and erratic behavior damaged her reputation and her popularity. She was fired from an appearance at the 2000 Academy Awards due to attitude problems and unprofessional behavior.

In recent years, Houston seemed poised for a comeback. her 2009 album, I Look to You, was released to good notice. She was set to return to the big screen this year in a remake of 1976′s Sparkle. In a now morbid case of art imitating live, the film is about the downfall of a sibling singing group when on sister break sout as the star and one sister falls prey to the evils of drugs.  The film is listed on IMDB as being in post-production with a scheduled release date of August 10, 2012.

It’s that time of year again. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 84st Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, especially in a year when the Best Picture nominees could be 5 films, or ten films, or any number in between.  We here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you, in the most non-committal way possible, who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre, X-Men: First Class, A Dangerous Method or Shame; Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid Love, Drive, or The Ides of March; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Clooney and Dujardin have won the most hardware this year, which not only make them a lock to be nominated, but also likely one of them will be taking home the award.

Fassbender has been great in a lot of films (listing X-Men: First Class was a bit of a joke, he’ll most likely get the nod for Shame, but I think he gave an Oscar worthy performance in that film) so he is practically a lock for a nomination. The next two are about 50/50 of getting in. The Academy seems to have something against DiCaprio, and his performance as J. Edgar Hoover while not horrible (he got a lot of nods for other awards for it), was not amazing enough to overcome that film’s lackluster performance critically or financially. Brad Pitt eked out a couple of wins along the way (most notably, the New York and Boston critics), and while Moneyball was well received, I don’t see it as 100% Oscar material.

If DiCaprio and Pitt don’t get nominated, there are worthy choices waiting to take a spot. Bichir was great in a small film with a limited release that opened over the summer. These all work against him, but he is deserving of a nod. Gosling, like Fassbender, was great in a lot of films this year, and has been nominated before, but none of the films he was in seem to pass Oscar muster. Oldman was flat out amazing in Tinker Tailor, but his subtle performance might be lost on Oscar voters.

Best Actress

Almost Certain:

Viola Davis, The Help;  Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Definite Maybe:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Outside Shot:

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Charlize Theron, Young Adult

On paper, this seems to be the category that seems to have the least wiggle room. Davis, Streep, Close, Swinton and Williams are all in the type of roles that Oscar voters seem to trip over giving nominations to. But in every round of nominations, there are bound to be surprises, and this category is ripe for one.

Bejo and Olsen have the best chance of breaking in, in my opinion. But Bejo is getting pushed for Best Supporting Actress instead of Lead, even though she essentially had a lead role. Olsen got good notices in her role, but suffers from the same “too early/too small handicap” that Bichir has. Theron has received nods for Best Actress in the Golden Globes (where there are nominations for comedy and drama) and the Critic’ Choice Awards (where there are six nominees). She has an Oscar pedigree, but Young Adult could very well be seen as less than Oscar worthy.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Definite Maybe:

Albert Brooks, Drive; Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Outside Shot:

Nick Nolte, Warrior; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes or The Adventures of Tintin; Armie Hammer, J Edgar; Tom Hardy, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Plummer has won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice award Supporting Actor, making him a lock for an  Oscar nomination, if not the actual award. Branagh has been consistently nominated for his apt portrayal of Laurence Olivier, so he could get the nod as well. Slightly less certain but highly possible are nomination of two actors best known for comedy, Brooks and Hill, for playing against type. After that, place your bets. Will Nolte’s “sports mentor” role make the grade? Will Mortensen’s change of pace role as Sigmund Freud catch the Academy’s attention? Will the Academy make a statement and move towards the future by giving Serkis the nod for his superior motion-capture work? Does the Academy like J Edgar more than the critics and the general public do, thereby swing the nod to Hammer? Will Hardy represent Tinker Tailor‘s stellar cast with a nomination? Will it be another cast member? Or will the film be ignored?

Best Supporting Actress

Almost Certain:

Octavia Spencer, The Help; Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Definite Maybe:

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Outside Shot:

Jessica Chastain, The Help or Take Shelter; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Carey Mulligan, Shame; Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

What I said for Christopher Plummer above also applies to Spencer. The only chance Bejo doesn’t get nominated here is if she gets nominated for Best Actress. But that race is crowded so I think she’ll land here. She is deserving.

The only thing keeping me from making McCarthy almost certain is the Academy’s apparent hatred of the comedy. They do not like to give nominations from comedies, no matter how good the role or film is. This time, though, I think they’ll make an exception.

After that, pick two. Chastain and Woodley might have a slight advantage, but McTeer has a good chance and Mulligan could sneak in.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Definite Maybe:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris;  Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Outside Shot:

David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Steven Spielberg, War Horse or The Adventures of Tintin; Tate Taylor, The Help

Hazanavicius is definitely most deserving and Scorsese won the Golden Globe, so they should both be nominated. After that, Payne is almost a lock, as is Allen, due to the number of nominations they received. After that, well, ot depends. Fincher got a Directors Guild nomination, Malick has been on a lot of west coast critics awards list, which might be a barometer of how the Academy will go. Miller might ride the surprising accolades Moneyball is getting this award season with a nomination. And months ago, it looked like it wouldn’t be a question if Spielberg would be nominated, but for which film. Now, here he is, a long shot for any nomination at all. Weird. And Taylor has to be consider taking into account the number of great performance that came from that film.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

The Artist; The Descendants

Definite Maybe:

Hugo; The Help ; Midnight in Paris

Outside Chance:

The Tree of Life; War Horse; Moneyball; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; The Adventures of Tintin; Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or just about any other film out there that has a miniscule amount of buzz.

Not having a definite number of nominees beforehand really plays havoc with the prognosticating business. I tried to pick out the five most likely films to get nominated, but with the possibility of five more, well, it could be any film of a certain stature.

So, what do you think? Am I on to something, or totally wrong? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

It’s gotten to such a point that every award that is given out prior to the Oscars is viewed as giving hints as to how the Oscar will eventually play out. This is especially true of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, as they are given out by the union that represents Hollywood actors. Since the Academy Award acting nominations are also determined by the actors themselves, it goes to figure that the nominations for the two awards should be just about the same.

It never seems to work out that way, exactly, but let’s just for arguments sake that this year the Screen Actors Guild Awards will be the same. If that is the case, this will be a wild and woolly year at the Oscars.

The list features the expected nominees (Glenn Close, George Clooney, Meryl Streep), surprising additions (Leonardo DiCaprio? Brad Pitt? Jonah Hill?), and notable omissions (Elizabeth Olsen from Martha Marcy May Marlene comes to mind). I would love to see Melissa McCarthy get a nod when Oscar time rolls around, but the Academy has never been that friendly towards comedies.

Here is a complete list of the nominees-

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Demain Bichir – A Better Life
George Clooney – The Descendents
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Glenn Close – Albert Noss
Viola Davis – The Help
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
Armie Hammer – J. Edgar
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Berebice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Artist (The Weinstein Company)
Bridesmaids (Universal Pictures)
The Descendents (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
The Help (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
Midnight In Paris (Sony Pictures Classics)

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Adjustment Bureau (UNIVERSAL PICTURES)
Cowboys & Aliens (UNIVERSAL PICTURES)
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (WARNER BROS. PICTURES)
Transformers: Dark Of The Moon (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
X-Men: First Class (20TH CENTURY FOX)

It’s been a eventful week for Brett Ratner and, by proxy, the Oscars A week that resulted in a complete overhaul of the Oscar telecast.

It all started last Friday when Ratner’s latest film, Tower Heist was released. Ratner participated in a Q&A after a screening. When asked if he rehearsed with the cast before shooting certain scenes, Ratner replied, “Rehearsal is for fags.”

The comment was picked up by all the entertainment news outlets, and a video of Ratner saying the slur was briefly uploaded to YouTube. This led Ratner on Monday to issue an apology to film blog, The Wrap:

“I apologize for any offense my remarks caused. It was a dumb way of expressing myself. Everyone who knows me knows that I don’t have a prejudiced bone in my body. But as a storyteller I should have been much more thoughtful about the power of language and my choice of words.”

The apology was timely but wasn’t enough. GLAAD issued the following statement:

“This apology is a good start, but we’re working with Ratner’s people for more action, to clearly send a message to Hollywood that the anti-gay slurs used by bullies and bigots have no place in the world of entertainment, or anywhere else.”

Apparently, the “more action” GLAAD was working for was Ratner stepping down as Oscar telecast producer, because that was what Ratner did the very next day.  Ratner once again released a statement, explaining why he stepped down.

An Open Letter to the Entertainment Industry from Brett Ratner

Dear Colleagues,

Over the last few days, I’ve gotten a well-deserved earful from many of the people I admire most in this industry expressing their outrage and disappointment over the hurtful and stupid things I said in a number of recent media appearances. To them, and to everyone I’ve hurt and offended, I’d like to apologize publicly and unreservedly.

As difficult as the last few days have been for me, they cannot compare to the experience of any young man or woman who has been the target of offensive slurs or derogatory comments. And they pale in comparison to what any gay, lesbian, or transgender individual must deal with as they confront the many inequalities that continue to plague our world.

So many artists and craftspeople in our business are members of the LGBT community, and it pains me deeply that I may have hurt them. I should have known this all along, but at least I know it now: words do matter. Having love in your heart doesn’t count for much if what comes out of your mouth is ugly and bigoted. With this in mind, and to all those who understandably feel that apologies are not enough, please know that I will be taking real action over the coming weeks and months in an effort to do everything I can both professionally and personally to help stamp out the kind of thoughtless bigotry I’ve so foolishly perpetuated.

As a first step, I called Tom Sherak this morning and resigned as a producer of the 84th Academy Awards telecast. Being asked to help put on the Oscar show was the proudest moment of my career. But as painful as this may be for me, it would be worse if my association with the show were to be a distraction from the Academy and the high ideals it represents.

I am grateful to GLAAD for engaging me in a dialogue about what we can do together to increase awareness of the important and troubling issues this episode has raised and I look forward to working with them. I am incredibly lucky to have a career in this business that I love with all of my heart and to be able to work alongside so many of my heroes. I deeply regret my actions and I am determined to learn from this experience.

Sincerely,
Brett Ratner

I’m sure that there are many who read the slur Ratner  used and said, “What’s so wrong about that? It just a word.” It seems obvious from Ratner’s sincere statement above that he did not intend it to be as derogatory as it turned out to be. But the slur in question compared a task that Ratner found no value in to homosexuals using an insulting term. Looking at it that way, it’s easy to see how Ratner’s words could hurt people.

Anyway, from there, it became a question as to whether or not Eddie Murphy would stay on as Oscar host. The conventional wisdom was that he would, but, as the Academy would find out the next day,  it turns out that Murphy and Ratner was a package deal:

“First and foremost I want to say that I completely  understand and support each party’s decision with regard to a change of  producers for this year’s Academy Awards ceremony. I was truly looking  forward to being a part of the show that  our production team and writers were just starting to develop, but I’m  sure that the new production team and host will do an equally great  job.”

The search for a new host would begin just as the search for a new producer was ending, as it was announced later that same day that Academy Award winning producer Brian Grazer would step into fill Ratner’s shoes.

The search for a replacement host last just over 24-hours as well as it was announced today by the Academy (and confirmed by Crystal himself via Twitter, just to prove he’s hip enough for the job) that eight-time host Billy Crystal will be returning for a ninth time hosting. The last time he hosted was in 2004.

While most of the message board posters have been a bit snarky about Crystal’s return (general consensus–he’s too old/not trendy enough), as a long time Oscar watcher and fan, I can tell you I am ecstatic about this.

Billy Crystal simply works well as Oscar host. Yes, he’s a comedian from the old school, but in this case, that’s not a bad thing. He’s one or two generations removed from the era of comedy where being a good master of ceremonies was an essential attribute. He knows how to keep a show moving, how to keep the viewers entertained, and how to keep the broadcast sharp. And he’s done job before! Eight times! He could probably do the show in his sleep! And, really, if you say you don’t think he’d be better than the Hathaway/Franco debacle of last year, I’ll say you’re lying.

In replacing the team of Ratner and Murphy with the team of Glazer and Crystal, the Oscars might have lost an element of hipness and danger. But it gained competence and skill in return. In my opinion, Ratner’s week of speaking without thinking is the best thing that could have happened to this year’s telecast. I’d be watching either way, but now I can actually look forward to the show instead of being cautiously optimistic.

1. Arthur (Warner Brothers, 3,276 Theaters, Rated PG-13): If there was a film that really didn’t need to be remade, it probably was the original Arthur. The 1981 film wasn’t exactly the best film in history, but it was good for what it was. Dudley Moore was perfectly cast as the lush trust fund baby, John Gielgud won an Oscar for his deadpan portrayal of Hobson, and while the exceptional amount of drinking in the original makes it somewhat dated today, it was in no need of updating.

But, this being Hollywood, an updating it gets. The drinking, at least in the trailers, is toned down. Russell Brand is more age appropriate to play a child of wealth and leisure being forced to grow up, although the weird, acerbic wit might not play as well as Moore’s playful drunken dialogue.

The story, in essence, still remains the same. Arthur is threatened with being cut off from his fortune unless he marries the daughter of another billionaire. Problem is, he’s fallen in love with another woman of lower standing.

2. Your Highness (Universal, 2,769 Theaters, 102 Minutes, Rated R):I think the powers that be behind this movie lucked into something with this cast. I don’t know if they had any idea that James Franco would be nominated for an Oscar and Natalie Portman would win one when they cast them in this film, but at least they got a pretty good joke for their ads.

They aren’t the only ones giving able support to Danny McBride. The excellent cast also features Zooey Deschanel, Charles Dance and Justin Theroux in supporting roles. That’s not too shabby.

The story revolves around a prince who must rescue his love after she has been kidnapped. He is forced to bring along his foppish, incompetent brother along. Things are complicated when they meet a female warrior along the way.

3. Hanna (Focus Features, 2,535 Theaters, 111 Minutes, Rated PG-13): This is the era of the violent little girl. Kick-Assfeatured a pre-teen girl trained from birth to becoming a martial arts wielding super-hero. Now, we have this one, which features Saoirse Ronan as a teenager raised from a young age to be a dangerous super spy and assassin.

What could be exploitative to the point of becoming Grindhouse cinema, the quality will certainly rise above that with actors the caliber of Ronan, Eric Bana and Cate Blanchett in the cast. Can’t imagine any film with those three would ever be less than interesting.

4. Soul Surfer (Tri-Star, 2,214 Theaters, 106 Minutes, Rated PG-13): In 2003, Bethany Hamilton was attacked by a shark while surfing off the coast of Hawaii. The shark bit off her left arm up to her shoulder. A few inches higher, she would have been killed. As it was, she lost 60% of the blood in her body after the attack.

Just the fact that she went through such a horrible attack and survived is enough for her to deserve a film devoted to her life. The fact that she climbed back onto a surfboard and went back into the ocean to become a championship surfer means that she deserves a film devoted to her life that is promoted far more than this one is.

I remember seeing some on location pieces floating around here and there, but here it is being released in 300 less theaters than it’s nearest competitor to little or no fanfare.

The biggest upset of the night was the fact that there were not any upsets. The favorites won in pretty much every category, just like everyone knew that they would. And I think this led to this telecast being regarded on the Internet as one of the most boring, even though it was relatively short by Oscar standards.

The favorites winning out is only part of the reason why this was such a snoozefest. Another big reason had to be the host. James Franco and Anne Hathaway are charming people. They’re easy to look at, too. But together, on this night, they were deadly. They became magnified reflections of their usual film roles. Hathaway became the overly hyper sweetheart who was a little too eager to please, and Franco became the laconic and acerbic young man who was having trouble staying awake.

Granted, they weren’t given much to work with. When dressing in drag is the creative apex, you are in trouble. But the hosts, well, the whole show as a matter of fact, seemed more than just a bit off.

Not that there weren’t high points. Kirk Douglas’ bit at times seemed for the first couple minutes like it was anything but a joke. But once you caught on, it became a brilliant bit of comedy. Melissa Leo dropping the f-bomb was something that doesn’t happen every day. And Trent Reznor winning the Oscar for Best Music made a certain demographic in the viewing audience feel old. And there was an acceptance speech here and there that added levity to the proceedings.

But the show had the feel of a bunch of 50 year olds trying to appear hip for the younger demographic. The opening bit with Franco and Hathaway cameoing their way throughout the Oscar nominated films was a dumbed down version of similar intros that have opened the show before. And the autotuned film musical segment was really painful to watch. And, really, announcing that the Academy agreed on a new contract with ABC for the telecast really isn’t big enough to be announced at the telecast.

The reason why the awards were predictable was because all the favorites truly deserved the award. All of the winners in the major categories were the best in their particular category. It’s even hard to be outraged that Christopher Nolan got passed over for Best Original Screenplay because David Seider’s script for The King’s Speech was witty excellence.

So, it’s hard to get upset over anything at this year’s show. It was blah to the next level. But tame and safe was probably exactly what the Academy wanted.

It’s that time of the year again, Oscar time! The question everyone is asking (at least in my household) is this: in a year with so many perceived dead solid locks, could their be any surprising upsets? Well, of course there could! That’s what makes the Oscars the Oscars!

In this post, we go through the major categories, pick who we think will will, and who has the best chance for an upset. This way, all of our bases are covered (unless, of course, we are wrong). We’ll even give you our odds for an upset. So, here we go!

Best animated feature film of the year

• How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
• The Illusionist (Sony Pictures Classics) Sylvain Chomet
• Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Lee Unkrich

And the Oscar Goes to: Toy Story 3.

Unless it goes to: The Illusionist.

Chance of Upset: 75%

It’s a strong year for animated fare. All the nominees are crafted with heart and are strong candidates. Toy Story 3 should carry on Pixar’s domination of the category, but The Illusionist has a better than outside chance.

Adapted screenplay

• 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• True Grit (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

And the Oscar Goes to: The Social Network.

Unless it goes to: Toy Story 3.

Chance of Upset: 56%

I think Sorkin will take this award, but out of the rest of the contenders, Toy Story 3′s team brought a lot of heart and feeling to a third installment of a franchise. That’s an accomplishment.

Original screenplay

• Another Year (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Mike Leigh
• The Fighter (Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• Inception (Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan
• The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Seidler

And the Oscar Goes to: The King’s Speech.

Unless it goes to: Inception.

Chance of Upset: 89%

Odds are that The King’s Speech will win in what could be a runaway blowout for the movie. But the Academy likes to give consolation prizes to directors who were snubbed in other categories. That, and Inception‘s inventiveness make it a strong upset prospect.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” (Paramount)
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom” (Sony Pictures Classics)

And the Oscar Goes to: Melissa Leo

Unless it goes to:Hailee Steinfeld

Chance of Upset: 97%

I am going to go on a limb here and say if there is an upset in any category, there will be one here. Although, a lot of people are saying the same thing. Leo is truly deserving–her performance was awe-inspiring, but the Academy likes give awards to youth actors in this category. A lot.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
• John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town” (Warner Bros.)
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)

And the Oscar Goes to: Christian Bale

Unless it goes to: Jeremy Renner

Chance of Upset: 1%

Yeah, if there is a mortal lock here, it’s Bale. If he doesn’t get the award, there is something seriously wrong. But if I had to pick any underdog, and I have to, my gut tells me Renner has the best chance, which is slim to none.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” (Lionsgate)
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company)

And the Oscar Goes to: Natalie Portman

Unless it goes to: Michelle Williams

Chance of Upset: 27%

Portman left it all on the screen in Black Swan, and the Academy loooooves that. But there have been rumblings she is vulnerable. Most of these rumblings involve Bening, but I think if there is an upset, Williams will be the one to do the upsetting. She left it all on screen too, in a less esoteric film.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions)
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” (Paramount)
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
• Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”  (The Weinstein Company)
• James Franco in “127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)

And the Oscar Goes to: Colin Firth

Unless it goes to: James Franco

Chance of Upset: 13%

Yeah, it’s pretty much Firth’s award to lose. He played a real person, a monarch no less, who overcomes a medical malady in a time of need. That’s catnip to the Academy. But Franco has three things going for him:1) He was pretty much the movie, being on screen almost the whole time 2) He also struggled with adversity. I mean, he had to act like he cut his own hand off, for goodness sake! And…3) He’s co-hosting the awards. Which would be a trip if he won. A long shot, but an intriguing one.

Achievement in directing

• Black Swan (Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky
• The Fighter (Paramount), David O. Russell
• The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Tom Hooper
• The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), David Fincher
• True Grit (Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

And the Oscar Goes to: Tom Hooper

Unless it goes to: David Fincher

Chance of Upset: 99.9%

Almost a 100% chance of upset? Hey, what gives!?! I don’t get to do this, do I?  Well, here is why I did this. I think there will be a split between Director and Picture this year. The Social Network will win one, The King’s Speech the other. However, I don’t know exactly which category each film will carry. I slightly favor Hooper here, but not enough to make Fincher that much of an underdog.  So, there you go.

Best Picture

• Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) A Protozoa and Phoenix Pictures Production, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
• The Fighter (Paramount) A Relativity Media Production, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
• Inception (Warner Bros.) A Warner Bros. UK Services Production, Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers)
• The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features) An Antidote Films, Mandalay Vision and Gilbert Films Production, Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
• The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) A See-Saw Films and Bedlam Production, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
• 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) An Hours Production, Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
• The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) A Columbia Pictures Production, Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) A Pixar Production, Darla K. Anderson, Producer
• True Grit (Paramount) A Paramount Pictures Production, Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
• Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions) A Winter’s Bone Production, Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

And the Oscar Goes to: The Social Network

Unless it goes to: The King’s Speech

Chance of Upset: 99.9%

See above for my logic on the percentage. And while The King’s Speech has everything the Academy likes in a movie, I’m giving the ever-so-slight advantage to The Social Network, which is more relevant.

1. The Town (Warner Brothers, 2,861 Theaters, 123 Minutes, Rated R): You have to admire the second act that Ben Affleck is currently enjoying. Once, he seemed to be a rare Hollywood icon. An Oscar winner for his writing ability, he seemed poised to have a long and successful career as a romantic leading man/thinking man’s action hero, a double threat if you will.

Then came Gigli.

That film was a thermonuclear bomb, laying waste to both his and Jennifer Lopez’s film career (J-Lo is only now starting to dig her way out). It seemed like Affleck was soon to be consigned to the kind of films that are only released on DVD or maybe a high-profile TV show.

But before he slipped that far, he tried his hand at directing. When it was announced that he would be directing Gone Baby Gone, the instinctual reaction would be to mock. Instead, he gave us one of the best films of the new millennium, and helped Amy Ryan get a well deserved Oscar nod.

Now he back in the directors chair with another film adapted from a crime novel featuring an eclectic, albeit very talented cast. Only this time, he’s taken on a role in the production. Will he hit a sophomore slump? Or will his successful second act continue.

2. Devil (Universal, 2,810 Theaters, 80 Minutes, Rated PG-13): Legend has it that in many a theater that ran this trailer, the audience let out a collective groan when the words “From the mind of M. Night Shyamalan” came on the screen. I only noticed some derisive mumbling when I saw it, but my mileage might vary.

Shyamalan co-wrote and produced the film, so he is a part of it, but he isn’t directing it. I don’t know if that makes a difference but there you go.

The plot does seem like a Shyamalan plot. Four strangers become trapped in an elevator when it breaks down. If that wasn’t bad enough, it appears that one of the four is the devil, and is Hellbent on torturing the other three.

Having a horror film set in the confined space of an elevator seem like a no-brainer, but I’m not sure in a good or a bad way. It seems perfect for tension, but, really, if the devil is one of the four in the elevator with you, it shouldn’t take 80 minutes to find out. 

3. Easy A (Sony/Screen Gems, 2,800 Theaters, 92 Minutes, Rated PG-13): An unpopular teenager decides to help out a high-school buddy. Her friend is gay but like that fact to remain a secret. At a party, they fake having sex. The aftermath has surprising results for the girl, as she now finds herself popular in a number of different ways.

This has been getting some good notices, comparing it to Heathers and Mean Girls. Pretty heady company.

I lot, I guess, would depend on Emma Stone. It’s her likability that will be the determining factor on how good the film is. The concept seems fairly airtight and hard to screw up. But if you don’t feel for the lead, then it will all go out the window. However, if she pulls it off, this could be a star-making role.

4. Alpha And Omega (Lionsgate, 2,625 Theaters, 88 Minutes, Rated PG): The bad thing about the success of  Pixar, Dreamworks, and other CGI animation houses, is that it gives the impression that this kind of success is so easy that anyone can do it. But if you lack Pixar’s sense of heart or Dreamworks sense of fun, you are not going to succeed.

This film seems kind of originality by way of cookie cutter, like a Frankenstein creation of some sorts. It’s a romance between different classes. This has been done before. Never with animated wolves, but still. You have the added dynamic of one of the pair being great at what they do, and the other being a hapless loser. The only change is that the female is the dominant one out of the pair. Of course, they are put together on a dangerous adventure where they can learn from one another and fall in love.

Other than that, the only thing this film has going for it is that it turned out to be Dennis Hopper’s last film. Which, well, is what it is.