On Friday, we here at FilmBuffOnline handicapped the Oscar race as we saw it. As we all know, the nominations have just been released. How did we do?  Well, let’s find out. And the nominees are…

Actor in a Leading Role

• Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
• George Clooney in Up in the Air
• Colin Firth in A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman in Invictus
• Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

Commentary: It wasn’t too hard to get 100% correct when four of the five were gimmies. Morgan Freeman played a real-life inspirational hero, and most years that will be enough to get you the nod.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Matt Damon in Invictus
• Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

Commentary: Again, with a perfect record, if you count picking Plummer as an outside shot as a prediction. Of course, the “playing a real-life person” factor and the “legend at in the winter of his career” factor was enough to give Christopher Plummer his first Oscar nomination. Conventional wisdom says this statue is Christoph Waltz’s to lose, but I’m getting a feeling that Plummer could spoil, especially if he gets the “here’s a statue for lifetime achievement ” sympathy vote.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren in The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan in An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
• Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 of 5.

Commentary: Another clean sweep! This is our best year ever! Up into this category at least!

And I totally don’t believe this story about Sandra Bullock not expecting a phone call telling her she was nominated. She’s the favorite to win the whole thing! Pretending to be humble only works if, well, you need to be.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Penélope Cruz in Nine
• Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
• Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
• Mo’Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 4 of 5.

Commentary: The first surprise of the nominations, as Maggie Gyllenhall gets the honor of losing to Mo’Nique on Oscar night. So left fied was this that I picked Mariah Carey over her as a possible candidate. Crazy Heart seemed to be a Jeff Bridges vehicle all along, but I guess the Academy thought Gyllenhaal was worth a nod.

Directing

• Avatar – James Cameron
• The Hurt Locker– Kathryn Bigelow
• Inglourious Basterds– Quentin Tarantino
• Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire – Lee Daniels
• Up in the Air– Jason Reitman

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 of 5.

Commentary: Again, a very predictable category. And , since there are 10 nominees for Best Picture, all five of the director’s films are nominated for Best Picture, avoiding the reoccurring controversy of one of a director being snubbed. Of course, to look at it another way, now there are five directors being snubbed.

Best Picture

• Avatar – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• The Blind Side – Nominees to be determined
• District 9– Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
• An Education– Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
• The Hurt Locker – Nominees to be determined
• Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender, Producer
• Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire– Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
• A Serious Man– Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
• Up – Jonas Rivera, Producer
• Up in the Air– Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 10 of 10.

Commentary: 100% correct, even if we thought that The Blind Side, District 9, and A Serious Man were long shots. I’m happy that the Academy gave a nod to the genre flick District 9. I’m very happy that Up got a nods. There would have been a rant if it wasn’t in the list. I think it deserved a spot even if there were only five spaces.

The Blind Side is listed by many as a surprise, but, really, there was enough Oscar buzz around it that I included it as having a chance on my list. What is surprising is that such a poorly received film got a nomination. The film received a 70% positive rating at the movie review aggregatesite, Rotten Tomatoes. That did qualify it as “Fresh,” or recommended, by the site, but was only 11 percentage points away from being classified “Rotten,” or not recommended. Of all the possible candidates I listed on Friday, only Nine scored lower (and abysmal 37% positive rating). All the other films listed scored at least five percentage points higher.

This is indicative of the axiom, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The field was extended to 10 films to put to rest the controversy about good films not getting nominated. But a good number of critically acclaimed films didn’t make the cut, but the treacly, feel-good, factually inaccurate film did. If they keep this up, maybe the Academy should expand the nominees to 20.

It’s that time of year again. This Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, but we here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man;  Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Definite May Be:

Morgan Freeman, Invictus;

Outside Shot:

Robert Downey Jr, Sherlock Holmes; Matt Damon, The Informant!; Tobey Maguire, Brothers

Four of the five spots should be locked up, as Clooney, Firth, Bridges, and Renner have been nominated for all the other awards this season and have pretty much split up the winnings. Freeman should be nominated, but could also have some backlash headed his way. Downey Jr. won the Golden Globe for comedy acting, and there is some buzz for Damon.

Best Actress:

Almost Certain:

Sandra Bullock, The Blindside; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Definite May Be:

Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education

Outside Shot:

Amy Adams, Julie and Julia; Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria; Ellen Page, Whip It; Hilary Swank, Amelia

Bullock seems to have set off a siren with critics and her fellow actors as per her acting ability. Sidibe’s debut won raves and that should make her a lock for a nomination, Mulligan has won her fair share of awards, but will Oscar nominate two relative unknowns in the same year? The Academy should just make a rule that Streep is automatically nominated whenever she puts a movie out. Julia and Julia seem more Oscar worthy than It’s Complicated. But I wouldn’t be surprised if her co-star from the former gets a nod. Amelia was a poorly received Oscar bait, but the Academy seems to like Swank.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Christoph Waltz,Inglourious Basterds

Definite May Be:

Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Outside Shot:

Ben Foster, The Messenger; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

It’s Waltz’s Oscar to lose, so he’s pretty much guaranteed a nomination. Damon, Harrelson and Tucci have received enough acclaim elsewhere that they should be nominated. Plummer has received a number of nominations, but Foster and especially McKay were strong in their roles and could surprise.

Best Supporting Actress:

Almost Certain:

Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Definite May Be:

Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Fermiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Outside Shot:

Mariah Carey, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Diane Krueger, Inglourius Basterds; Julianne Moore, A Single Man; Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

Like Supporting Actor, Mo’Nique is enough of a front runner that a nod is a given. However, her performance isn’t the only surprisingly good one in the film, so a nod for Mariah Carey is not outside the realm of possibility. Both women from Up in the Air should be nominated, but Kendrick has the edge if they only choose one. The Academy loves Cruz, so she should get a nomination for a poorly received movie. And I can’t see Avatar not getting one acting nod, and the most likely candidate is Weaver.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Definite May Be:

Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Clint Eastwood, Invictus; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Outside Shot:

Tom Ford, A Single Man; Pete Docter & Bob Petersen, Up

The big three of Bigelow, Cameron (who were once married to each other–keep an eye on each other’s face if the other wins) and Reitman should get nods. Daniels and Tarantino have other nominations to their credit and the Academy loves Eastwood. But Docter and Petersen are more than worthy.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire, Up in the Air

Definite May Be:

An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, A Single Man, Up

Outside Shot:

(500) Days of Summer, The Blindside, Crazy Heart, District 9, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hangover, Julie and Julia, The Messenger, Nine, A Serious Man, Star Trek, The Young Victoria

Since this is the first time in decades that more than five films will be nominated for Best Picture, this has become one of the most unpredictable categories. Any film nominated for Best Director should have a good chance at making the ten, but what about sci-blockbusters like Star Trek and District 9? How about comedies like The Hangover? Do poorly received films like Nine and The Blindside have a chance? This all adds up to a test year for the new system and the list of nominees being anybody’s guess.

If you’re looking for a little reading over the holidays, you may want to check out some of the screenplays that the studios are flogging for Academy Awards consideration this year. More and more studios are placing their Oscar hopeful scripts online for the voting members of the Academy to peruse and hopefully vote for a nomination for either Best Original or Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s much cheaper than sending out copies to everyone and has the great side effect of making them also available to anyone to read. All the scripts are in .pdf format and will probably only be available through the awards season. (So click and save if you’re interested in having a copy to read later on down the road.)

500 Days Of Summer (FOX Searchlight)
9 (Focus Films)
Broken Embraces (Los Abrazos Rotos) (Sony Classics)
The Blind Side (Warner Brothers)
Coraline (Focus Films)
Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight)
The Damned United (Sony Classics)
An Education (Sony Classics)
The Fantastic Mister Fox (Fox Searchlight)
Funny People (Universal)
Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince (Warner Brothers)
The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment)
The Imaginarium Of Dr. Parnassus (Sony Classics)
The Informant! (Warner Brothers)
Inglorious Basterds (Weinstein Company)
It’s Complicated (Universal Studios)
The Last Station (Sony Classics)
The Men Who Stared At Goats (Overture Films)
Moon (Sony Classics)
Nine (Weinstein Company)
Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire (Lionsgate)
Public Enemies (Universal Studios)
The Road (Weinstein Company)
A Serious Man (Focus Films)
Sin Nombre (Focus Films)
A Single Man (Weinstein Company)
Sugar (Sony Classics)
Sunshine Cleaning (Overture Films)
Where The Wild Things Are (Warner Brothers)
The White Ribbon (Das Weiss Band) (Sony Classics)