It’s that time of year again. This Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, but we here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man;  Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Definite May Be:

Morgan Freeman, Invictus;

Outside Shot:

Robert Downey Jr, Sherlock Holmes; Matt Damon, The Informant!; Tobey Maguire, Brothers

Four of the five spots should be locked up, as Clooney, Firth, Bridges, and Renner have been nominated for all the other awards this season and have pretty much split up the winnings. Freeman should be nominated, but could also have some backlash headed his way. Downey Jr. won the Golden Globe for comedy acting, and there is some buzz for Damon.

Best Actress:

Almost Certain:

Sandra Bullock, The Blindside; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Definite May Be:

Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education

Outside Shot:

Amy Adams, Julie and Julia; Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria; Ellen Page, Whip It; Hilary Swank, Amelia

Bullock seems to have set off a siren with critics and her fellow actors as per her acting ability. Sidibe’s debut won raves and that should make her a lock for a nomination, Mulligan has won her fair share of awards, but will Oscar nominate two relative unknowns in the same year? The Academy should just make a rule that Streep is automatically nominated whenever she puts a movie out. Julia and Julia seem more Oscar worthy than It’s Complicated. But I wouldn’t be surprised if her co-star from the former gets a nod. Amelia was a poorly received Oscar bait, but the Academy seems to like Swank.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Christoph Waltz,Inglourious Basterds

Definite May Be:

Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Outside Shot:

Ben Foster, The Messenger; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

It’s Waltz’s Oscar to lose, so he’s pretty much guaranteed a nomination. Damon, Harrelson and Tucci have received enough acclaim elsewhere that they should be nominated. Plummer has received a number of nominations, but Foster and especially McKay were strong in their roles and could surprise.

Best Supporting Actress:

Almost Certain:

Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Definite May Be:

Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Fermiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Outside Shot:

Mariah Carey, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Diane Krueger, Inglourius Basterds; Julianne Moore, A Single Man; Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

Like Supporting Actor, Mo’Nique is enough of a front runner that a nod is a given. However, her performance isn’t the only surprisingly good one in the film, so a nod for Mariah Carey is not outside the realm of possibility. Both women from Up in the Air should be nominated, but Kendrick has the edge if they only choose one. The Academy loves Cruz, so she should get a nomination for a poorly received movie. And I can’t see Avatar not getting one acting nod, and the most likely candidate is Weaver.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Definite May Be:

Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Clint Eastwood, Invictus; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Outside Shot:

Tom Ford, A Single Man; Pete Docter & Bob Petersen, Up

The big three of Bigelow, Cameron (who were once married to each other–keep an eye on each other’s face if the other wins) and Reitman should get nods. Daniels and Tarantino have other nominations to their credit and the Academy loves Eastwood. But Docter and Petersen are more than worthy.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire, Up in the Air

Definite May Be:

An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, A Single Man, Up

Outside Shot:

(500) Days of Summer, The Blindside, Crazy Heart, District 9, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hangover, Julie and Julia, The Messenger, Nine, A Serious Man, Star Trek, The Young Victoria

Since this is the first time in decades that more than five films will be nominated for Best Picture, this has become one of the most unpredictable categories. Any film nominated for Best Director should have a good chance at making the ten, but what about sci-blockbusters like Star Trek and District 9? How about comedies like The Hangover? Do poorly received films like Nine and The Blindside have a chance? This all adds up to a test year for the new system and the list of nominees being anybody’s guess.

With one film franchise going strong and a second one just gathering steam, Robert Downey Jr. doesn’t have any more room in his work schedule for a potential third. The LA Times has reported that Downey has dropped out ofthe upcoming comic book adaptation Cowboys & Aliens, which is due to be directed by his Iron Man collaborator Jon Favreau.

With his schedule dominated by potential further sequels to Iron Man, Iron Man 2 and Sherlock Holmes, the Times reportage hints that the actor wants to leave some space to do smaller, non-blockbuster films. Hopefully, these will be more successful in the vein of Tropic Thunder as opposed to The Soloist.

Dreamworks is reportedly looking at moving forward with the film, with Favreau still in the director’s chair. They just now need to find a new charismatic actor to play the leader of a revolt of cowboys and Indians against some aliens who have landed in the Old West with plans on enslaving the local populace. The studio still hopes to get the film before cameras sometime this year.

Guy Ritchie’s new cinematic interpretation of Sherlock Holmes has certainly gotten fans of the Great Detective debating the last couple of weeks over whether the eponymous film is  true to the spirit of what author Arthur Conan Doyle created over a century ago. One person who is taken exception to how the relationship between Holmes (Robert Downey Jr.) and Dr. Watson (Jude Law) may have been portrayed is Andrea Plunket, who controls the remaining U.S. copyrights to the Holmes stories.

On a recent appearance on The Late Show With David Letterman, Downey stated that there may exist a homosexual subtext to Holmes and Watson’s relationship. This idea does not sit well with Andrea Plunket, who controls the remaining U.S. copyrights to the Holmes stories. According to ContactMusic, she had this to say in response to Downey’s hint-

I hope this is just an example of Mr Downey’s black sense of humour. It would be drastic, but I would withdraw permission for more films to be made if they feel that is a theme they wish to bring out in the future. I am not hostile to homosexuals, but I am to anyone who is not true to the spirit of the books.

(So Holmes fans, shall we parse that statement to mean that she had no other problems with the script- i.e., Holmes as brawler?)

Does Plunket have a serious concern here? I think not. Sure, the script has Holmes and Watson sometimes bickering with each other to the point where you expect a by-standing character to snap “Oh, get a room already!” But I think the same could be said about any pair of people who have been close friends for years, that they can argue in a very distinguishable tone and rhythm. Additionally, though, the tense bickering is there to underline Holmes’ sense of unease over Watson’s upcoming marriage and the dissolution of their partnership in adventuring. Holmes is not the most socially adapt person and Watson is seen as his tether to society, the one that keeps him sane when between cases. And while the pair’s dynamic on screen could be read as latently homosexual, I think to read it only in that light is to do a disservice to what Ritchie is really trying to illustrate.

A handsome cab clatters through the cobblestone streets of Victorian London at night. Inside, renowned detective Sherlock Holmes (Robert Downey Jr.) and his faithful assistant Dr. Watson (Jude Law) prepare to bring another case to a close. In this instance, they apprehend Lord Blackwood (Marc Strong) for the occult-fueled murders of four women, rescuing a fifth before a sacrificial knife is plunged in to her. Following his trial and death sentence, Blackwood promises to return from the dead, a claim that Holmes and Watson scoff at, especially when Watson, as attending physician at Blackwood’s hanging, pronounces him dead. Months later, Blackwood has apparently risen from his grave and Holmes and Watson must race to discover how he managed such a feat and what his resurrection portends.

I don’t claim to be conversant in the complete canon of Sherlock Holmes stories penned by Arthur Conan Doyle. But I have seen a majority of the Great Detective’s English-speaking cinematic adventures and I would say that the ones that work best are the ones that attempt to flesh out the character of Holmes a bit further than the seemingly emotionless, calculating detective as present by Doyle. Some fans decry some of these films for veering too far from Doyle’s original intent, but I think a case could be made that since the stories are written in the first person by Holmes’s close friend, Dr. J. Watson (James or John, Doyle never had that detail satisfactorily nailed down), he could be considered an unreliable narrator, glossing over details about Holmes that he may have felt did not present him in the best of light to his Victorian readers.

Granted there will be some fans who will decry the film’s portrayal of Holmes as someone who will occasional resort to brawn in addition to brains. However, film is a visual medium and much better suited to illuminating the side of Holmes that even Conan Doyle/Watson described in “A Study In Scarlet” as an “expert boxer and swordsman.” There is not much great cinema to be found in long shots of a brow-furrowed Holmes pondering long and hard over a “three-pipe problem.” That is not to say that the intellectual side of Holmes is neglected here. Director Guy Ritchie, who cut his teeth on the visually stylish crime dramas Lock, Stock And Two Smoking Barrels and Snatch, uses his signatory visual flourishes of sudden slow-motion and speed ramps to illustrate Holmes’s powers of observation and deduction. This works better than having Holmes explaining things to Watson or some other convenient person standing by after the fact.

Robert Downey Jr. turns in an exciting and full-formed performance as Holmes, capturing both the single-minded focus of the detective when he is on a case and the near panic and depression that grip him between cases when he has no puzzle to which he can turn his intellect. As his counter-balance, right-hand man and best friend, Jude Law does an equally good job in the role of Dr. Watson. Thankfully, the script has written the doctor with intelligence, hopefully finally ridding the public of the image of Watson-as-bumbler as portrayed by Nigel Bruce when he played the role opposite Basil Rathbone’s Holmes in the 1930s and `40s. To accentuate the importance of their friendship, the script has it at a crisis point. After years of sharing quarters at the famous 221B Baker Street, Watson has become engaged to be married and is preparing to move out. This has thrown Holmes for a loop, as he has come to depend on Watson’s help during his cases and perhaps to keep him sane between them. There’s definitely a bromance between the two and Holmes is jealous of Watson’s fiancé coming between them and the possibility of sharing future adventures together. Downey and Law play the scenes for all their worth, finding just the right light-hearted tone.

If the movie is guilty of anything, it is for trying to do too much. In the original stories, Irene Adler was the one woman who could engage Holmes on an intellectual level, the only level on which he could be engaged. Here, the film suggests that there was much more to that relationship – again, Watson has been an unreliable, though discreet, narrator – and her return does throw Holmes for a bit of a loop. Irene, however, is working at cross-purposes to Holmes and the revelations as to why and for whom is clearly a set-up for a sequel. While Rachel MacAdams does good work making the interplay between her character and Downey’s Holmes flirty and fun, but since there’s no ultimate payoff to her story arc, it only can be seen as something that clutters the movie to a degree, especially during the film’s middle third.

1. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Brothers, @3,600 Theaters, 128 Minutes, Rated PG-13): When Guy Ritchie was announced as the director of this film, you had to know that this wouldn’t be your father’s Sherlock Holmes.

Of course, no one could really expect that we would get a pit fighting Holmes either, but that’s what we get. Of course, this irks a lot of people. It’s not that they don’t like their Holmes to be physical, it’s just that they don’t want it to be at the expense of the cerebral.

There also has been some controversy if this film was adapted from an unpublished comic book or not. Early publicity made it seem it was, but there is more and more evidence that it was not. Personally, I love the fact that we have come so far that people will lie about being adapted from a graphic novel to get press. I just love that!

2. It’s Complicated (Universal, @2,800 Theaters, 118 Minutes, Rated R): Any movie whose cast that features Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin, and Steve Martin can’t be all bad. I’m just saying.

This film is about a divorced couple who hook up after years apart. Which would be good if they both weren’t already in relationships. As their affair continues, their lives get, well, complicated.

The film is done by Nancy Myers, who has carved out a little cottage industry for herself in writing and directing romantic comedies for a more mature audiences such as Something’s Got to Give and The Holiday. Which is good for her because there seems to be an audience for that kind of comedy.

3. Nine (The Weinstein Company, @1,500 Theaters, 110 Minutes, Rated PG-13): This film doesn’t only share a director in common with Chicago. Both were Broadway musicals recently revived on the Great White Way. Both feature actors you wouldn’t normally associate with a musical. The cast features Oscar winners, recording artists, and big name stars.

So, needless to say, this film has Oscar-bait written all over it. Unfortunately, I have not been hearing all that much Oscar buzz about it. It is kind of sad when a film tries so hard for award mention and doesn’t get it. Although, who knows, maybe this one will gain some steam before the nominations come out.

This film is going into wide release after being in limited release for the last week or so.

There’s a new poster for Guy Ritchie’s upcoming Sherlock Holmes film. In addition to standard shots of Robert Downey Jr. (whose head looks photoshopped on here) as Holmes and Jude Law as trusty assistant Dr. Watson, we can see co-stars Rachel McAdams (as Irene Adler) and Mark Strong (as the villainous Lord Blackwood) lurking amongst the background images.Also in the background images are a bottle of cyanide, a street lamp bearing Holmes’ legendary street address, a gun and a bulldog. (Click on the images below for a bigger view.) Do they have some significance in the story? We’ll find out when the film opens on December 25. (But, really Warner Brothers promotional depart… “Holmes For The Holidays”? That is one of the worse tag lines I’ve seen in a long while.)

Via Cinematical.

Franchises have become such an important part of a studio’s business model that second installments are starting to be prepared even before an initial entry in a potential series has been seen by the public. So it should come as no surprise that Warner Brothers are already developing a sequel to their yet to be released adventure Sherlock Holmes, featuring Robert Downey, Jr. as Arthur Conan Doyle’s classic sleuth and Jude Law as Holmes’ faithful assistant Dr. Watson.

The Hollywood Reporter states that the studio is getting ready to hire scripters Kieran and Michele Mulroney, who wrote the abandoned Justice League: Mortal superhero film for the studio, to develop a screenplay for a sequel. Surprisingly, though, the Mulroneys were not involved at all with the original film, which had run through the typewriters of Michael Robert Johnson, Anthony Peckham and Wigram and Simon Kinberg.

Even more surprising is the news that the producers have been talking with Brad Pitt to appear in the second film as Holmes’ arch-nemesis Professor Moriarty.There has already been some buzz that Moriarty makes an appearance in the first film, but a quick read of the script reveals that while he does show up, he remains in the shadows, never clearly seen.

With franchises for Holmes, Iron Man and a possible third one growing out of his upcoming Cowboys & Aliens, it looks as if Downey could be setting himself up with enough guaranteed work for years to come.

We’ve been teased with some photos, but now we get our first good look at what Guy Ritchie has in store for his upcoming interpretation of the classic detective Sherlock Holmes. From the looks of the just released trailer, which you can see on the big screen this weekend in front of Terminator: Salvation, Ritchie seems to still be using some of his stylistic camera work. Whether it works in the movie overall remains to be seen, and we’ll see on Christmas Day.

Director Guy Ritchie is perhaps best known for his modern-era, British crime stories, so it should be interesting to see how he handles a more classical British crime fighter, Sherlock Holmes. USAToday got a set visit to Ritchie’s new version of Holmes, starring Robert Downey Jr. as Holmes, Jude Law as Dr. Watson and Rachel McAdams as Irene Adler.

From the looks of things, Ritchie’s version will draw on some ideas mentioned in Holmes-creator Arthur Conan Doyle’s original stories, but not really developed before in any film adaptation. For instance, Downey’s Holmes will know a martial arts style called “bartitsu.” As Ritchie explains, “It’s a kind of Japanese street fighting. It uses walking sticks, bowler hats, choke holds to put people to sleep- any practicle means possible.”

Here’s a sample of some of the 10 new photos that accompany USAToday‘s story-

Head over to USA Today‘s site for a look at all ten pictures and then pop back to tell us what you think.

We started off this past weekend with a sneak look at Robert Downey Jr as the master detective Sherlock Holmes in director Guy Ritchie’s upcoming film, so what better way to start off the work week than with a look at Jude Law as Holmes’ longtime friend/sidekick/biographer, Dr. John Watson?

The folks over at Just Jared, who scored the Robert Downey Jr. pics, have also been first out of the gate with this look at Law. I’ve picked three of the best out of the ten pictures they have for the gallery below. You’ll notice that in the photos of Law walking and talking with Downey as Holmes, that Downey is dressed far more befitting a Victorian-era gentleman than he did in the previous set of photos, giving credence to the idea that Holmes was in disguise in those first pictures.