On Friday, we here at FilmBuffOnline handicapped the Oscar race as we saw it. As we all know, the nominations have just been released. How did we do?  Well, let’s find out. And the nominees are…

Actor in a Leading Role

• Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
• George Clooney in Up in the Air
• Colin Firth in A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman in Invictus
• Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

Commentary: It wasn’t too hard to get 100% correct when four of the five were gimmies. Morgan Freeman played a real-life inspirational hero, and most years that will be enough to get you the nod.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Matt Damon in Invictus
• Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

Commentary: Again, with a perfect record, if you count picking Plummer as an outside shot as a prediction. Of course, the “playing a real-life person” factor and the “legend at in the winter of his career” factor was enough to give Christopher Plummer his first Oscar nomination. Conventional wisdom says this statue is Christoph Waltz’s to lose, but I’m getting a feeling that Plummer could spoil, especially if he gets the “here’s a statue for lifetime achievement ” sympathy vote.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren in The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan in An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
• Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 of 5.

Commentary: Another clean sweep! This is our best year ever! Up into this category at least!

And I totally don’t believe this story about Sandra Bullock not expecting a phone call telling her she was nominated. She’s the favorite to win the whole thing! Pretending to be humble only works if, well, you need to be.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Penélope Cruz in Nine
• Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
• Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
• Mo’Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 4 of 5.

Commentary: The first surprise of the nominations, as Maggie Gyllenhall gets the honor of losing to Mo’Nique on Oscar night. So left fied was this that I picked Mariah Carey over her as a possible candidate. Crazy Heart seemed to be a Jeff Bridges vehicle all along, but I guess the Academy thought Gyllenhaal was worth a nod.

Directing

• Avatar – James Cameron
• The Hurt Locker– Kathryn Bigelow
• Inglourious Basterds– Quentin Tarantino
• Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire – Lee Daniels
• Up in the Air– Jason Reitman

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 of 5.

Commentary: Again, a very predictable category. And , since there are 10 nominees for Best Picture, all five of the director’s films are nominated for Best Picture, avoiding the reoccurring controversy of one of a director being snubbed. Of course, to look at it another way, now there are five directors being snubbed.

Best Picture

• Avatar – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• The Blind Side – Nominees to be determined
• District 9– Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
• An Education– Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
• The Hurt Locker – Nominees to be determined
• Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender, Producer
• Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire– Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
• A Serious Man– Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
• Up – Jonas Rivera, Producer
• Up in the Air– Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 10 of 10.

Commentary: 100% correct, even if we thought that The Blind Side, District 9, and A Serious Man were long shots. I’m happy that the Academy gave a nod to the genre flick District 9. I’m very happy that Up got a nods. There would have been a rant if it wasn’t in the list. I think it deserved a spot even if there were only five spaces.

The Blind Side is listed by many as a surprise, but, really, there was enough Oscar buzz around it that I included it as having a chance on my list. What is surprising is that such a poorly received film got a nomination. The film received a 70% positive rating at the movie review aggregatesite, Rotten Tomatoes. That did qualify it as “Fresh,” or recommended, by the site, but was only 11 percentage points away from being classified “Rotten,” or not recommended. Of all the possible candidates I listed on Friday, only Nine scored lower (and abysmal 37% positive rating). All the other films listed scored at least five percentage points higher.

This is indicative of the axiom, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The field was extended to 10 films to put to rest the controversy about good films not getting nominated. But a good number of critically acclaimed films didn’t make the cut, but the treacly, feel-good, factually inaccurate film did. If they keep this up, maybe the Academy should expand the nominees to 20.

It’s that time of year again. This Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards.

Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, but we here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.

We will try to tell you who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definite May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.

Best Actor:

Almost Certain:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man;  Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Definite May Be:

Morgan Freeman, Invictus;

Outside Shot:

Robert Downey Jr, Sherlock Holmes; Matt Damon, The Informant!; Tobey Maguire, Brothers

Four of the five spots should be locked up, as Clooney, Firth, Bridges, and Renner have been nominated for all the other awards this season and have pretty much split up the winnings. Freeman should be nominated, but could also have some backlash headed his way. Downey Jr. won the Golden Globe for comedy acting, and there is some buzz for Damon.

Best Actress:

Almost Certain:

Sandra Bullock, The Blindside; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Definite May Be:

Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education

Outside Shot:

Amy Adams, Julie and Julia; Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria; Ellen Page, Whip It; Hilary Swank, Amelia

Bullock seems to have set off a siren with critics and her fellow actors as per her acting ability. Sidibe’s debut won raves and that should make her a lock for a nomination, Mulligan has won her fair share of awards, but will Oscar nominate two relative unknowns in the same year? The Academy should just make a rule that Streep is automatically nominated whenever she puts a movie out. Julia and Julia seem more Oscar worthy than It’s Complicated. But I wouldn’t be surprised if her co-star from the former gets a nod. Amelia was a poorly received Oscar bait, but the Academy seems to like Swank.

Best Supporting Actor:

Almost Certain:

Christoph Waltz,Inglourious Basterds

Definite May Be:

Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Outside Shot:

Ben Foster, The Messenger; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

It’s Waltz’s Oscar to lose, so he’s pretty much guaranteed a nomination. Damon, Harrelson and Tucci have received enough acclaim elsewhere that they should be nominated. Plummer has received a number of nominations, but Foster and especially McKay were strong in their roles and could surprise.

Best Supporting Actress:

Almost Certain:

Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Definite May Be:

Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Fermiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Outside Shot:

Mariah Carey, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Diane Krueger, Inglourius Basterds; Julianne Moore, A Single Man; Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

Like Supporting Actor, Mo’Nique is enough of a front runner that a nod is a given. However, her performance isn’t the only surprisingly good one in the film, so a nod for Mariah Carey is not outside the realm of possibility. Both women from Up in the Air should be nominated, but Kendrick has the edge if they only choose one. The Academy loves Cruz, so she should get a nomination for a poorly received movie. And I can’t see Avatar not getting one acting nod, and the most likely candidate is Weaver.

Best Director:

Almost Certain:

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Definite May Be:

Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire; Clint Eastwood, Invictus; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Outside Shot:

Tom Ford, A Single Man; Pete Docter & Bob Petersen, Up

The big three of Bigelow, Cameron (who were once married to each other–keep an eye on each other’s face if the other wins) and Reitman should get nods. Daniels and Tarantino have other nominations to their credit and the Academy loves Eastwood. But Docter and Petersen are more than worthy.

Best Picture:

Almost Certain:

Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire, Up in the Air

Definite May Be:

An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, A Single Man, Up

Outside Shot:

(500) Days of Summer, The Blindside, Crazy Heart, District 9, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hangover, Julie and Julia, The Messenger, Nine, A Serious Man, Star Trek, The Young Victoria

Since this is the first time in decades that more than five films will be nominated for Best Picture, this has become one of the most unpredictable categories. Any film nominated for Best Director should have a good chance at making the ten, but what about sci-blockbusters like Star Trek and District 9? How about comedies like The Hangover? Do poorly received films like Nine and The Blindside have a chance? This all adds up to a test year for the new system and the list of nominees being anybody’s guess.

Ryan Bingham is what is called a road warrior. He spends most of the year in the cabin of an airplane, travelling for his work. What is his job? He works for a company that is hired out by other businesses to fire their employees. And he is good at his job.

Bingham lives a life of solitary existence. He is estranged from his family, his only relationships with women are of the carnal kind, and his one main goal in life is to earn 10 million frequent flier miles at American Airlines. And this is all by choice. He even has a side job as motivational speaker advising other people to let go of their emotional attachments.

Two things cause changes to Bingham’s perfectly ordered life. First, he meets a female road warrior named Alex Goran with whom he develops a sexual relationship, one that he might wish to develop into something more. Second, his employer is about to adopt a new policy proposed by a recent hire fresh out of college by the name of Natalie Keener where, instead of flying to the location, firings would be done by Web conferencing. Essentially, Bingham would be grounded.

Up in the Air is a “dramedy” where the drama is heart wrenchingly poignant and the comedy is laugh-out-loud funny. It is one of the best films not only of this year but one of the best of all time.

The acting is superb from top to bottom. It might seem like typecasting to  cast George Clooney as the charming yet aging bachelor, but that might be why he brings an easy confidence to the role. You want to hate him because of his job, but you can’t help feeling for him. That’s all Clooney’s doing.

Vera Farmiga provides a strong performance as Alex. Her character remains consistent throughout. Farmiga is sexy and seductive, coy and mysterious in the role, which helps the character ring true as the film progresses.

But out of the three main characters, Anna Kendrick is a revelation as Natalie. Her young, know-it-all character could very well have stereotypical and annoying in lesser hands. Kendrick finds the layers in the character and makes her more than just one-dimensional.

Great performance are also to be had by Amy Morton and Melanie Lynskey as Ryan’s sisters, Danny McBride as his soon to be brother-in-law, and Reitman regulars Jason Bateman and J.K. Simmons as Ryan’s boss and firee respectively.

The topic is timely to discuss in today’s downsizing-happy economy, and you can compare Bingham’s plight to that of the laid-off worker and the uncertain battle plans of the corporations that fired them. But it also works as an emotional journey of change and discovery for a man who thought he had it all figured out.

It is not a perfect film. There are parts that are predictable. As the writing maxinm goes, if you show a gun in the first act, you’d better have used by the third. Well, there are a lot of “guns” in the film, and savvy film goers should know exactly when and where they would be fired. But this predictability is minor compared to all the elegantly crafted scenes that ring true and make this film something truly special. All due credit for this should go to Jason Reitman for his direction and his co-writing of the script with Sheldon Turner.

Up in the Air has been getting a lot of Oscar buzz. Often times, this kind of hype is overrated. That is not the case for this film. Expect to hear this film’s name on February 2nd.