It’s that time of year again. This Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards.
Every year there are snubs and surprises, thrills and controversies. There is no way of knowing who will be nominated, but we here at FilmBuffOnLine, who believe the day nominations are announced should be a National holiday, are going to try and handicap the process for you.
We will try to tell you who we think are Almost Certain to get a nomination, who Definitely May Be nominated, and whose nomination is a Outside Shot in the major categories (the four acting categories, Best Director, and Best Picture). We are trying to cover all bases, but don’t come to us if you lose money on your Oscar Nomination pool.
Best Actor:
Almost Certain:
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech, James Franco, 127 Hours.
Definite Maybe:
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network, Jeff Bridges, True Grit, Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Outside Shot:
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter, Javier Bardem, Biutiful, Robert Duvall, Get Low, Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version, Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland, Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack, Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception.
Firth seems to be not only a lock for the nomination, but also for the award. The nomination buzz surrounding Franco has quieted down a little bit, but he should still have enough to get a nod. Eisenberg is the most definite of the maybes. Bridges could make it two nominations in two years, but the acting in Blue Valentine is what people keep talking about, so Gosling has a very good chance. Bet on the latter to get a nod before the former. Wahlberg was great in The Fighter but overshadowed by the rest of the cast. Bardem is excellent in an Academy friendly role. Duvall put in his usual great performance, and could garner lifetime achievement votes. Giamatti won the Golden Globe for this role, which makes him a contender. Depp and Spacey are the longest of long shots, but the Academy seems to like them. And Inception is the lost movie this Oscar season, but DiCaprio’s work is worthy of mention.
Best Actress
Almost Certain:
Natalie Portman. Black Swan.
Definite Maybe:
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine, Annette Bening, The Kids Are Alright, Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit.
Outside Shot:
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are Alright, Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole, Hilary Swank, Conviction, Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice, Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Leslie Manville, Another Year, Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs.
Portman, like Firth, could be a lock not only for a nomination but also the statue. Lawrence’s role in Winter’s Bone was career making and deserves a nod. Williams should be a lock for a nod for the acting fest that was Blue Valentine. Bening won a Golden Globe for her role, but cast mate Moore might split the nomination vote. Steinfeld was the female lead of True Grit, but, as Hollywood is want to do, they are pushing her for Best Supporting Actress, under the impression it might be easier to win. She deserves a nod no matter where it is. Kidman, Swank and Berry are all former winners in showy, Oscar friendly roles. I usually cringe whenever I see such blatant Oscar fodder, but the Academy usually obliges. Kidman has the best shot of the three. Rapace is great in one of the most talked about roles in recent film memory—at least until the American version comes out. She could very well be nominated for her work in the trilogy. Manville has won a critics award, but has a tough road to travel. Hathaway has gotten better notices than her film did, but it might not be enough for a nod.
Best Supporting Actor:
Almost Certain:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Definite Maybe:
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network, Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech, Jeremy Renner, The Town
Outside Shot:
Sam Rockwell, Conviction, Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are Alright, Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone, Armie Hammer, The Social Network, Tom Hardy, Inception.
Once again, Bale, like Firth and Portman, seems to be a lock for a nod and the award. Garfield has been the perennial bridesmaid to Bale for other awards, and should Garner a nod. Rush and Renner also have been nominated in other areas and have a good chance to do so again. Rockwell is one of the best actors of this generations and deserves a nod, but is this film it? Ruffalo could complete the trifecta for The Kids Are Alright. Douglas garnered a Golden Globe nod and the Academy likes him. Could get a sympathy vote. If the Academy is willing to nominate two people from Winter’s Bone, then Hawkes has a shot. Hammer arguably had the harder job than Garfield, having to play twins and all, so he could get a nod. And Hardy had the showiest role in Inception, so he has the best chance of being nominated.
Best Supporting Actress
Almost Certain:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Definite Maybe:
Amy Adams, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit, Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Outside Shot:
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech, Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom, Marion Cotillard, Inception
This could very well be the most predictable year of the Oscar ever. However, if there will be an upset, it will most likely happen in this category. Leo was awesome in The Fighter but if Steinfeld gets nominated here instead of Best Actress, the youngster might give her a run for her money. Adams has the unique opportunity to once again be nominated for a Best Supporting Actress award against a cast mate. The same thing happened two years ago when she was nominated with her Doubt cast mate Viola Davis. Personally, I though Kunis didn’t really make an impression in Black Swan, but she has garnered a lot of nominations for her role. Bonham Carter was solid as the Queen Mum; Weaver is an Australian actress with a long career in that country who has garnered a number of nominations for this role, which was specifically written for her. But how many people in Hollywood actually have heard of it? And Cotillard had a very showy role in Inception. Could be enough for a nod out of a weak field.
Best Director:
Almost Certain:
David Fincher, The Social Network, Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan,
Definite Maybe:
Christopher Nolan, Inception, Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech, David O. Russell, The Fighter.
Outside Shot:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; Mike Leigh, Another Year, Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit.
This category is pretty much wrapped up, nominee wise. Fincher has won a number of statues already; Aronofsky has garnered much acclaim, so their nods are all but certain. Nolan would have had this award won if the ceremony was held in August. I think he still should. Hooper and Russell have filled out a number of nominee lists, including the all-important Director’s Guild Awards. Boyle, Leigh and the Coens are long shots at best.
Best Picture:
Almost Certain:
The Social Network, Black Swan
Definite Maybe:
Inception, The King’s Speech, The Fighter, The Kids Are Alright, Toy Story 3, Blue Valentine, 127 Hours, True Grit
Outside Chance:
Winter’s Tale, The Town
The Social Network has dominated awards season up to this point, so if it doesn’t get nominated, something is seriously wrong. Black Swan was disappointing in my opinion, but the people who love it REALLY love it. That should be enough to get a nod. Inception was a great film and is deserving. The King’s Speech, 127 Hours and The Fighter have the Oscar DNA in that they are biopics where the lead overcomes adversity. They’re in. The Kids Are Alright won the Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical Golden Globe, but it was up against such winners as Burlesque and Red. I think every Pixar film should get a Best Picture nod—Best Animated Film category be damned. Toy Story 3 was one of the best movies of the year—period. It deserves to be here. Blue Valentine has gotten notices for its spectacular acting, and I think that should be enough to earn a spot in the field of ten. True Grit should get the final spot, although Winter’s Tale and The Town may surprise.
So, there you have it. Barring any wild card, out of nowhere choices, your nominees should be from these selection listed. Of course, there is always wild card, out of nowhere nominees
