Oscar Nominations Post-Mortem: Surprises And Sure Things.

On Tuesday, we handicapped the 2013 Oscar race by telling you who we thought was going to be nominated. Now, it’s time to face the music, and see how well we did. There have been a lot of surprises in the nominees, and the surprises were puzzling. Let’s see how we fared against our predictions, then we’ll comment on surprises in other categories that we didn’t talk about on Tuesday. Let’s start with Best Actor:

Performance by an actor in a leading role-

Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 4.5 out of 5

We Say: I’m taking .5 off because while I did say Cooper’s nomination was a possibility, I though John Hawkes or Richard Gere would get in instead of him. But, inexplicably, the voters seem to really love Silver Linings Playbook, therefore Cooper is one of many nominations that got in because of that lovefest.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role-

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5.

We say: See, we told you Alan Arkin was a lock for a nomination! But, then again, the category was relatively easy to predict. As Stone and MacFarlane snarkily pointed out while reading the nominations, every nominee already has at least one Oscar.

Performance by an actress in a leading role-

Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 5 out of 5

We say: Another very predictable category, with all the most deserving performances getting a nomination. A bit of Oscar history as we have our oldest nominee ever (Riva) and youngest nominee ever (Wallis) facing off against each other.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role-

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 4 out of 5

We Say: We have to stop underestimating the Academy’s love for Jacki Weaver. Also, their appreciation of the underwhelming Silver Linings Playbook, which seems to have willed itself into being an Oscar powerhouse through savvy promotion alone (it was a good movie, but not a great movie). Maybe they made a deal with the Academy that they would buy 500 ads on Good Morning America during the Oscar Nomination announcements in exchange for getting a lot of nods. And Hunt getting a nomination while Hawkes gets snubbed just seems wrong on many levels.

Achievement in directing-

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Number of Nominations We “Called”: 3 out of 5

We say: No Affleck, no Bigelow, no Hooper. All three got DGA nods. All three were odds on favorites for a nomination. And they get bupkis. This is completely unfathomable. Granted, it’s good to see Haneke and Zeitlin get nominations, but that means Spielberg and Russell are taking Affleck’s and Bigelow’s spots. There I said it. Lincoln and Silver Lining Playbook were good, but not extraordinary movies. And the work Affleck and Bigelow did is far more deserving than pretty much any one else on the list. I just can’t understand it. But without Affleck and Bigelow in the mix, the race is wide open.

Best motion picture of the year-

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Amour
Django Unchained
Argo

Number of Nominations We “Called”: It’s hard to calculate, but we mentioned 9 out of the 9.

We say: I find it ironic that in the two years since the Academy changed the rules for the number of nominees from ten to anywhere between five and ten because there were not enough strong nominees, there have been 9 nominees each year. And this year, it could have very well been ten. I think Brave and Moonrise Kingdom had as much call to be nominated as some of the films that did get nominated.

Other surprises:

I have to say, and this might get me in trouble with my boss here at FBOL, but I could have done with out the snark from Seth MacFarlane during the nominations. I just didn’t find it all that funny. And Emma Stone looked like she was hoping that a SWAT team would bust into the room and rescue her.
That being said, it looked like MacFarlane’s reaction to being nominated for Best Original Song was sincere. That certainly will put an interesting spin on the proceedings.
Considering how screwed up the nomination process for Best Documentary is each year, Searching for Sugar Man even getting on the short list was a great accomplishment. It making its way to an actual nomination is something close to a miracle. Not because it doesn’t deserve to be there, but because it does. So does Bully, but that didn’t get a nomination. At least it made it to the short list.
The Avengers is up for Best Achievement in Visual Effects. So I have at least one category where I have a rooting interest in.

Stay tuned to FilmBuffOnline, because, as we get closer to the ceremony, the staff will bring you more news about this year’s ceremony.