{"id":35579,"date":"2015-02-22T01:07:53","date_gmt":"2015-02-22T06:07:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/?p=35579"},"modified":"2018-12-05T20:26:23","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T01:26:23","slug":"if-we-picked-the-oscars-2015-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/2015\/02\/22\/if-we-picked-the-oscars-2015-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"If We Picked The OSCARS: 2015 Edition!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/2011\/06\/15\/talking-about-the-academys-best-picture-nomination-changes\/oscarstatues-2\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-14448\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14448\" src=\"http:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/OscarStatues.jpg\" alt=\"OscarStatues\" width=\"550\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/OscarStatues.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/OscarStatues-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a>It\u2019s that time of the year again, Oscar time! The question everyone is asking (at least in my household) is this \u2013 who will go home with the gold and what other surprises will ensue.<\/p>\n<p>In this post, we go through the major categories, pick who we think will will, and who has the best chance for an upset. This way, all of our bases are covered (unless, of course, we are wrong). We\u2019ll even give you our odds for an upset. So, here we go!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best animated feature film of the year<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Big Hero 6<\/strong> Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Boxtrolls<\/strong> Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight<\/li>\n<li><strong>How to Train Your Dragon 2<\/strong> Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold<\/li>\n<li><strong>Song of the Sea<\/strong> Tomm Moore and Paul Young<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Tale of the Princess Kaguya<\/strong> Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to: How to Train Your Dragon 2<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to: The Boxtrolls<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 5%<\/p>\n<p>It looks like it is <strong>HTTYD2&#8217;s <\/strong>year to get an award, but it will be a hallow victory because the best animated film of the year, <strong>The Lego Movie<\/strong>,\u00a0did not even get nominated. Out of the rest, <strong>The Box Trolls <\/strong>might have a slim chance to get an award. Although, I think eventually one of the foreign films the Academy nominates in this category will end up winning it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Original Song<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cEverything Is Awesome\u201d from <strong>The Lego Movie<\/strong><br \/>\nMusic and Lyric by Shawn Patterson<\/li>\n<li>\u201cGlory\u201d from <strong>Selma<\/strong><br \/>\nMusic and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn<\/li>\n<li>\u201cGrateful\u201d from <strong>Beyond the Lights<\/strong><br \/>\nMusic and Lyric by Diane Warren<\/li>\n<li>\u201cI\u2019m Not Gonna Miss You\u201d from <strong>Glen Campbell\u2026I\u2019ll Be Me<\/strong><br \/>\nMusic and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond<\/li>\n<li>\u201cLost Stars\u201d from <strong>Begin Again<\/strong><br \/>\nMusic and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong> \u201cI\u2019m Not Gonna Miss You\u201d from <strong>Glen Campbell\u2026I\u2019ll Be Me<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cEverything Is Awesome\u201d from <strong>The Lego Movie<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 35%<\/p>\n<p>I know many of you can&#8217;t see &#8220;Everything is Awesome&#8221; losing this category. However, it is going up against the last song Glen Campbell might ever write. The legendary singer songwriter is in the final stages of Alzheimers, and the song a final love note to his family. The song will be sung by Tim McGraw, as Campbell is in a medical facility, and McGraw&#8217;s rehearsals have brought tears to the people gathered. I think sentiment will rule the day.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Adapted screenplay<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>American Sniper\u00a0 <\/strong>Written by Jason Hall<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Imitation Game <\/strong>Written by Graham Moore<\/li>\n<li><strong>Inherent Vice <\/strong>Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Theory of Everything<\/strong> Screenplay by Anthony McCarten<\/li>\n<li><strong>Whiplash <\/strong>Written by Damien Chazelle<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to: The Imitation Game<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to: <\/strong><strong>Inherent Vice<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 7.5%<\/p>\n<p>The Imitation Game is the odds on favorite in a lot of places, but Anderson should get it just for adapting Pynchon, so I think he has the best chance for an upset.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Original screenplay<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) <\/strong>Written by Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu, Nicol\u00e1s Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. &amp; Armando Bo<\/li>\n<li><strong>Boyhood <\/strong>Written by Richard Linklater<\/li>\n<li><strong>Foxcatcher <\/strong>Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Grand Budapest Hotel\u00a0 <\/strong>Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson &amp; Hugo Guinness<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nightcrawler <\/strong>Written by Dan Gilroy<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to: The Grand Budapest Hotel<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 40%<\/p>\n<p>This is a tough category, where all scripts have a shot. This year, it will be the battle of the consolation prizes, with\u00a0<strong>The Grand Budapest Hotel <\/strong>having a slight edge over <strong>Birdman.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Performance by an actress in a supporting role<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Patricia Arquette in <strong>Boyhood<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Laura Dern in <strong>Wild<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Keira Knightley in <strong>The Imitation Game<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Emma Stone in <strong>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Meryl Streep in <strong>Into the Woods<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong> Patricia Arquette<\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong> Emma Stone<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 2%<\/p>\n<p>Arquette <a href=\"http:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/2015\/02\/17\/oscars-2015-know-your-nominees-best-supporting-actress\/\">has been winning every other major award<\/a> this season, I don&#8217;t see the possibility of that stopping here. I doubt that any of the other ladies have much of a chance, but if one of them do, it will be Emma Stone. She had the meatiest part of those left and she is well liked.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Performance by an actor in a supporting role<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Robert Duvall in <strong>The Judge<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Ethan Hawke in <strong>Boyhood<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Edward Norton in <strong>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Mark Ruffalo in <strong>Foxcatcher<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>J.K. Simmons in <strong>Whiplash<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong> J.K. Simmons<\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong> Robert Duvall<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 1%<\/p>\n<p>Simmons has had an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/2015\/02\/16\/oscars-2015-know-your-nominees-best-supporting-actor\/\">even better awards season <\/a>than Arquette. He should be a dead solid lock to take home some hardware. But for my upset pick, I&#8217;m not going with Norton, who won the most award next to Simmons this year, but rather Duvall. Not that his performance was anything else than his normal excellent performance, but he is 85. And while he does have an Oscar, he was great in a lot of roles that deserved awards but didn&#8217;t even get nominated. This might be a miake-up\/career achievement twofer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Performance by an actress in a leading role<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Actress in a Leading Role<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Marion Cotillard in <strong>Two Days, One Night<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Felicity Jones in <strong>The Theory of Everything<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Julianne Moore in <strong>Still Alice<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Rosamund Pike in <strong>Gone Girl<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Reese Witherspoon in <strong>Wild<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong> Julianne Moore<\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong> Rosamund Pike<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 1%<\/p>\n<p>Moore played a tricky role superbly. That role was of a woman battling early on-set Alzheimer&#8217;s, and the Academy like people battling with illness or disabilities. And she has a long history of great performances with no award as of yet. However, Rosamund Pike <a href=\"http:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/2015\/02\/19\/oscars-2015-know-your-nominees-best-actress\/\">has also done well this season<\/a>. Although, Pike has more awards outside of the Oscars, I believe that she will place a distant second to Moore here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Performance by an actor in a leading role<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Steve Carell in <strong>Foxcatcher<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Bradley Cooper in <strong>American Sniper<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Benedict Cumberbatch in <strong>The Imitation Game<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Michael Keaton in <strong>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Eddie Redmayne in <strong>The Theory of Everything<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong> Michael Keaton<\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong> Eddie Redmayne<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 5%<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s the battle of the career resurgence vs. the actor playing a true-life illness story. This should be Keaton&#8217;s to lose, and I sincerely hope he gets it. But Stephen Hawking is a role that the Academy like to give awards to. Still, I don&#8217;t think that will be enough to overcome Keaton&#8217;s momentum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Achievement in directing<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)<\/strong> Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu<\/li>\n<li><strong>Boyhood<\/strong> Richard Linklater<\/li>\n<li><strong>Foxcatcher<\/strong> Bennett Miller<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Grand Budapest Hotel<\/strong> Wes Anderson<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Imitation Game<\/strong> Morten Tyldum<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong> Richard Linklater<\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong> Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 43%<\/p>\n<p>A lot of people are favoring I\u00f1\u00e1rritu for his inventive work on <strong>Birdman<\/strong>. And I would agree that he deserves it.But it seems like the Academy, like everyone else, has become enamored with Linklater&#8217;s patience in directing <strong>Boyhood<\/strong>. I think this is the best chance for an upset this year, but it&#8217;s still a longshot for\u00a0I\u00f1\u00e1rritu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>American Sniper <\/strong>Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) <\/strong>Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>Boyhood <\/strong>Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Grand Budapest Hotel <\/strong>Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Imitation Game <\/strong>Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>Selma <\/strong>Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Theory of Everything\u00a0 <\/strong>Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers<\/li>\n<li><strong>Whiplash\u00a0 <\/strong>Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>And the Oscar Goes to:<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Boyhood<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Unless it goes to:<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>The Grand Budapest Hotel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Chance of Upset:<\/strong> 7%<\/p>\n<p>I think that it is <strong>Boyhood <\/strong>all the way. The only question is: which film has the best chance to be an upset? I pick <strong>The Grand Budapest Hotel <\/strong>over <strong>Birdman<\/strong>. I think the Academy like the former a lot more than the latter,and it will win if <strong>Boyhood <\/strong>falters.<\/p>\n<p>Follow me (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gates71\">@gates71<\/a>) and FilmBuffOnline (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FilmBuffOnLine\">@FilmBuffOnLine<\/a>) tonight for live commentary during the ceremony. Get our apologies for being wrong live as they happen!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\">With as strong favorites as we have this year, any upset will be that much more exciting!<\/div>\n<p> <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/2015\/02\/22\/if-we-picked-the-oscars-2015-edition\/\" title=\"If We Picked The OSCARS: 2015 Edition!\">[click for more]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3185,84],"tags":[29,7650,7649,1307,7648],"series":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-35579","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-featured-stories","7":"category-news","8":"tag-academy-awards","9":"tag-favorites","10":"tag-odds","11":"tag-oscars","12":"tag-picks"},"aioseo_notices":[],"nelio_content":{"autoShareEndMode":"never","automationSources":{"useCustomSentences":false,"customSentences":[]},"efiAlt":"","efiUrl":"","followers":[2,4],"highlights":[],"isAutoShareEnabled":false,"networkImageIds":[],"permalinkQueryArgs":[],"series":[],"suggestedReferences":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35579"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.filmbuffonline.com\/FBOLNewsreel\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/series?post=35579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}